Polls give Trump hope of holding Congress in midterm ballot
President’s approval rating hits an eight-month high as Democrat lead over Republicans has halved
DONALD TRUMP’S hopes of keeping control of Congress have been boosted thanks to an opinion poll surge since the turn of the year.
The US president’s approval rating has hit 40 per cent – the highest for eight months – while the Democrats’ lead over the Republicans has halved.
The poll changes are coupled with signs that voters are warming to Mr Trump’s tax cut, the biggest legislative win in his first year in office.
A growing economy and booming stock market – aside from a sharp drop in recent days – are seen as driving the change. However, how long that can last appeared in doubt yesterday as the Dow Jones industrial average suffered its biggest oneday points drop in history.
The trend has brought the Republicans renewed hope that they can hold the House of Representatives and the Senate in November’s midterm elections. Speaking to Republican congressmen last week, Mr Trump said: “You folks have done well. I just looked at some numbers. You’ve even done better than you thought.” Forty per cent of Americans now approve of the job he is doing, according to a poll of polls by Fivethirtyeight. com. That is up from around 37 per cent before Christmas. While most voters disapprove of his presidency, the last time Mr Trump hit 40 per cent before the turn of the year was May 2017. Similarly the Democrats’ lead over the Republicans on voting intentions in congressional races has dropped in the last month. The Democrats held a 13-point lead on Christmas Day, according a poll of polls from Realclearpolitics.com, but that is now just 6.6 points. It comes despite a string of scandals in January, including the publication of the tell-all book Fire and Fury. Mr Trump also faced claims an affair with an ex-porn star had been covered up by his lawyer – he denied the encounter – and a backlash for reportedly criticising immigration from “s---hole” countries. Credit for the improving polls has been given to the economic achievements that Mr Trump has been quick to tout since he entered office. The American economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2017 – quicker than at any time in the last three years. The US stock market has also hit record highs, though the falls in recent days have dented that achievement. There are signs that Mr Trump’s $1.5 trillion (£1.07 trillion) tax cut,
which polls suggested was opposed by most people when it passed in December, is now seen more positively by voters. Mr Trump is expected to focus on the growing economy and job creation in the run-up to the midterms.
In his State of the Union speech last week, Mr Trump spent much of the opening section listing statistics to back up his claim that he has turned the American economy around.
Critics say that he inherited a healthy economy from Barack Obama, and that the sharp increases in the stock market have not been matched in real wages.
Some recent polls have had as many Americans approving of the tax bill as disapproving – though the results remained mixed. The changes have
‘You folks have done well. I just looked at the numbers. You’ve done better than you thought’
checked Democrat momentum for the midterms created by their shock Alabama senate win just before Christmas.
They need to win around 24 seats from the Republicans to gain control of the House of Representatives – a result that still seems possible on the current polls. However, splits between moderates and hardliners about how to fight Mr Trump continue to rumble on.
The Democrats face a harder task in winning back the Senate, despite the Republicans holding just a 51-49 majority, because they have far more senators facing re-election.