Can Mrs May wriggle out of the EU plan to make us a vassal state?

An agreement over the Irish border is at the heart of an unacceptable power grab that must be evaded

In 1212, King John performed the ultimate act of tribute to a foreign power. In a carefully choreographed ritual, he took off his sword, threw himself to his knees before the Pope’s legate, swore eternal allegiance to the Holy See and presented a downpayment on a new vassalage arrangement, in which John resigned England to Rome’s protection and agreed to pay an annual instalment for the privilege of governing it. The papal legate, making the most of the moment, trampled on the money and demanded John make a full reckoning for all of the monies he owed the Church. The king did as he was told.

John found himself in this situation after staging a failed revolt against papal authority in England. He had refused to accept Rome’s authority to choose the Archbishop of Canterbury. Excommunicated and threatened with a French invasion, John submitted. Due to his tyranny and ineptness he had not been able to count on the support of his barons, his people or the English clergy. The result was his – and England’s – total humiliation.

Theresa May does not want to tie Britain into a legal web of permanent submission to Brussels, just as King John did not want to kneel. But that is where she is leading us. Despite this, the Tories are unable or unwilling to remove her. So now the only way out of the legal trap laid for us by Brussels is to buy time by fudging this year’s negotiation. After March next year, the Tories can ditch Mrs May and start negotiations in earnest. The idea of a good Brexit deal is off the table for the moment. Our Government must now expend every effort to avoid signing us up to a long-term vassal-state arrangement in the next 12 months.

We should not be in this position. If the Government had waited longer to trigger Article 50 and started preparing for all possible eventualities, including no deal, in June 2016, it would now possess the credibility it needs to negotiate. Unfortunately, it is too late to rectify this. Even as Britain failed totally to prepare for the consequences of its choices, No 10 has walked into a sophisticated snare that revolves around Ireland.

In December, floundering and desperate for a “victory” of sorts, Mrs May signed up to a document that states, in black and white, that if Britain cannot satisfy Brussels and Dublin’s demands regarding the Northern Irish border – as judged by them – it will agree to become a permanently passive, rule-taking member of the EU single market. In other words, the governance of our economy, laws and migration policy would start to be handed down to us like papal bulls.

In London, Brexiteers insist the document is nothing but a fudge. They crow about getting one over on the Irish. In Dublin, the mood is rather different. It is deadly serious about this document. In normal circumstances, Ireland could expect to be ignored by the mightier continental powers. But Brussels is religiously committed to legal language and – crucially – Britain has failed to demonstrate to Brussels that the EU will face trade barriers, reduced payments or a collapse in talks if it insists on sticking to the December text.

Now that our foot is in the Irish snare, the EU is, of course, starting to tighten it. Before December, the likeliest Brexit outcome was a Canadian-style deal, which, although it would unfairly favour the EU’S goods export surplus, would at least give us regulatory autonomy. Now, though, on top of its outrageous demand to punish the UK unilaterally if it deems we have broken any legal pledges – removing Britain’s right to due process – the EU wants Britain to agree that after Brexit it will not “compete” by having low taxes or less burdensome regulation.

In other words, Brussels officials are determined to treat us like a rogue state, demanding that Britain tie itself legally and permanently to European economic policy, whatever direction it takes. Conveniently ignoring the sordid aspects of its very own regime, in which German multinationals are allowed to gas monkeys and sell toxic cars, the EU claims Britain cannot be trusted to behave like a civilised state.

Faced with this unacceptable power grab and its own dismal attempts at negotiation, our own Government is about to unleash another round of set-piece Brexit speeches. The Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, will kick us off on Valentine’s Day, followed by Mrs May later in the month. This is an attempt to reset and look unified. The truth is that Britain’s main ambition for this year must now be shockingly modest: to avoid letting the Irish snare close around our ankle, with all of the punitive bells and whistles the EU wants to add. It must leave the door open to a decent deal, to be worked out in the coming years.

To this end, the task for Mr Johnson and Mrs May should be threefold.

First, they need to project a vision of where Britain is going, in particular, sketching out an ambitious trade agenda that can and should see us becoming a force for global trade liberalisation.

Secondly, they need to be honest about the timescale over which Brexit must happen: in truth, it will be some years before we regain our autonomy.

Thirdly, they must make clear that if Brussels continues on its current path, the deal simply will not stand. There is little point bluffing a walkout, since our Government has neither the strength nor the gumption to prepare for no deal, but they must deliver an unambiguous message: Britain is not a rogue state. It is a friendly neighbour and ally. But if the EU insists on subjugating this country, it will be a statement for all the world to see, declaring that the EU is not a community of freedom, respect and democracy; it is a prison ruled by fear.

Ultimately, for all King John’s humiliation, the Vatican’s attempt to dominate England did not last. The problem was that Rome had overreached. It began rapaciously sucking revenues out of the English Church and into its coffers. Its power was so absolute and used so abusively that it pushed together two new, powerful enemies: England’s clergy and its barons. Over the next century, Rome found it could not hold on to the power it had accrued. The barons became increasingly unruly, the English church increasingly disobedient. Our kings soon followed.

The continental power discovered the limits of its control. And so, in the end, England’s vassalage helped sow the seeds of its independence.