Mrs May is facing crunch time over EU

Labour’s decision to support parliamentary moves to commit the UK to remaining in a customs union with the EU after Brexit is a seminal moment in this long, drawn-out saga. To that end, this week will be book-ended by two key political speeches. First, Jeremy Corbyn will today confirm his party’s newly agreed position to seek a customs treaty with the EU after the transition period has ended. Then, on Friday, the Prime Minister is due to map out her Government’s post-brexit strategy, which will emphatically rule out staying in a customs union or the single market.

As Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour spokesman, said on the BBC yesterday: “crunch time is coming”. With around a dozen Conservative MPS apparently prepared to support the Labour line, Theresa May faces defeat in the Commons, even with the support of the DUP, which cannot be guaranteed other than on confidence and supply matters.

She could do what John Major did when he lost a vote over Maastricht in 1993, which is to link it to a vote of confidence in the Government. This would confront Tory rebels with the prospect of bringing down Mrs May and triggering an election that Labour could win. Labour and the Tory Remainers also need to be honest with the country about their intentions: despite their protestations to the contrary, many are still intent on derailing Brexit, in defiance of the referendum vote. Parliament should think carefully before undermining the democratic decision that it invited the people to take.

It is not yet clear when the parliamentary showdown will take place, but with talks on Britain’s future trading arrangements due to start in April, it cannot be long delayed. Much now depends on Mrs May’s post-brexit narrative, thrashed out at Chequers last week, which will be put to a full Cabinet meeting on Thursday. She needs to convince both Remainers and Brexiteers that she can secure a deal retaining frictionless trade with the EU and ensuring no hard border in Ireland, while retaining flexibility for the UK to diverge from European regulations. However, it is by no means certain that the EU will agree to what Brussels calls “the cake and eat it” policy.

What is now evident is that arguments over the relative merits of remaining in a customs union or leaving have been supplanted by straightforward, old-fashioned politics: who will be able to command the most votes in Parliament? The answer to that question will decide the fate of Mrs May’s government.