Barnier’s solution for Ireland truly is magical thinking
Brexit was always going to put the British constitutional settlement on the rack, and the text of the EU’S proposed “fallback” solution to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland was met instantly with agonised screaming in Belfast and Westminster yesterday.
Butter wouldn’t melt in Michel Barnier’s mouth, but the EU’S strategy is perfectly clear – they are seeking to strong-arm Theresa May into making difficult decisions and, more specifically, into joining the EU’S customs union.
This is the inescapable logic of the EU’S actions. Indeed, as Sir John Major noted in his speech, it is arguably the hard logic of Brexit itself, given the UK’S legal commitment to the Good Friday Agreement. It runs as follows. In December, the UK and EU agreed three options for avoiding a hard border with Ireland: Option A was through the “overall” EU-UK trade relationship; Option B was via “specific” technological solutions, and Option C – in the event of the other two failing – was “full alignment” between Ireland and Northern Ireland as needed to maintain the Good Friday Agreement and all-island economy. The EU has already ruled out Option B as “magical thinking”. It is equally clear that avoiding a hard border via a trade agreement (Option A) is impossible if the UK sticks to its red lines on the customs union and single
‘The weaponisation of the Irish issue … means the possible solutions are narrowing sharply’
market. Which, given Mrs May’s apparent determination to stick to those red lines, leaves the EU’S version of Option C, set out in five exhaustive chapters yesterday. In the words of one Whitehall official involved in the talks, it makes it look as if the EU is “trying to seize Northern Ireland”.
It would mean that after Brexit, a constituent part of the United Kingdom must accept the writ of the European Court of Justice and almost complete harmonisation with EU law. In effect, Northern Ireland becomes an exclave of the EU. It would mean a foreign government (Dublin) representing part of the UK at a foreign court (the European Council). Truly, this is “magical thinking”.
As Europe well knew she would – they were warned repeatedly by the British side – Mrs May rejected this as something “no UK prime minister could ever agree to”. The Democratic Unionists followed suit, accusing European leaders of “playing roulette” over Ireland’s economy.
The EU move reframes the conundrum of Brexit as follows: please define Option A, when Option B is dismissed “magical thinking” and Option C is something “no UK prime minister could ever agree to”.
The answer, as Mr Barnier noted, is that the UK joins a customs union. This, said the EU’S chief negotiator, could offer a “significant part of the solution for Ireland” when coupled with devolved moves to maintain regulatory alignment.
The weaponisation of the Irish issue and Mrs May’s doubling down in the Commons yesterday means the possible solutions to the Brexit algebra are narrowing sharply. Sir John confronted this unflinchingly. He notes Mrs May is committed to a “frictionless” border and agrees with Mr Barnier this cannot be achieved “unless we stay in ‘a’ or ‘the’ customs union”.
He also notes the many brave promises that Brexiteers made during the first phase of the negotiations – on the Brexit bill, on immigration and Singapore-style deregulation – which ultimately remained unfulfilled. And he predicts climbdowns are inevitable again.
Or not. For Sir John does not neglect the other alternative in this grim Brexit logic tree, setting out the choice that now actually confronts Brexiteers: “Compromise it must be,” he says, “or no deal at all.”