Warlike act to which Nato must respond

Theresa May’s response to the poisoning of the Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury has elevated a would-be assassination into an allegation of state-sponsored terrorism. She confirmed what everyone had suspected: that this was a reckless attempt to carry out a murder using the most deadly nerve agent known to man. Since the chemical, Novichok, was developed by the Russians it was “highly likely” that the Kremlin was responsible. The only alternative explanation was that the Russian government had lost control of its stocks of a weapons-grade chemical warfare component six times more deadly than VX.

The Russian ambassador has been given until the end of today to give a “credible” explanation as to which of these is true. Furthermore, Mrs May said that, if the Novichok had fallen into the hands of maverick assassins, Russia would have to open up its nerve agent programme to international scrutiny, something Vladimir Putin is clearly not going to do.

To accuse the Russian state of unlawful use of force against the UK using chemical weapons is about as serious an accusation as can be levelled, short of a declaration of war. Indeed, as Tom Tugendhat, the chairman of the Commons foreign affairs committee put it, if this was not exactly an act of war, it was a warlike act.

Reaching such a conclusion, however, has consequences. Since President Putin, who is facing an election this weekend, is not known for backing down or apologising, Mrs May needs to have a range of the most robust responses ready to deploy if and when the Kremlin rebuts the accusations levelled against it. The difficulty for the Government is that lower level responses, such as financial sanctions against named Russians, were deployed after the murder of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 and remain in place. The UK’S response to his killing was criticised as inadequate; Mrs May has now raised the bar considerably.

In declaring this to be a hostile act against the UK she is preparing the ground to invoke Article 5 of the Nato treaty, under which an attack on one signatory is an attack on all. While a military response is not being suggested, and would be disproportionate, Britain clearly needs the backing of other countries in imposing some sort of punishment on Russia in keeping with the principle of collective action.

After the Litvinenko assassination, Britain expelled four Russian diplomats and Moscow responded in kind. This time, given the grave accusation against Russia, the Government will need to expel the Russian ambassador and many of his staff at the very least, close the embassy, and conduct arm’s length diplomatic relations through a third party.

A boycott of the Fifa Word Cup in the summer would hit Russia – and Mr Putin, for whom it is a vanity project – extremely hard. But can the UK convince other participants to join in? If England were the only team not to go, Britain would look isolated and unable to rely upon the support of other Nato members despite the declaration of a state on state attack. When the United States called for a boycott of the Moscow Olympics in 1980 over the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Britain sent a team to the Games.

Moreover, it will be hard to galvanise international support when the response of the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was so partisan and pusillanimous, to the evident disgust of many on his own benches. Mr Corbyn fell so far below what was required of the Opposition leader on such a sombre occasion that he risked damaging the national interest by undermining the stand being taken by the Government. His inability to see such crucial matters as anything other than an opportunity for party political point-scoring further reinforces his unfitness for high office.

Now, Mrs May not only has Brexit to contend with but she has put Britain on course for what is possibly its biggest foreign policy crisis since the Falklands. She will need the support of the entire country to see it through.

‘Britain clearly needs the backing of other countries in imposing some sort of punishment on Russia’