Five steps to picking a winner on heavy ground
1 Choose a horse with serious stamina 2 Slower rides can mount a challenge 3 Brave and patient jockeys are crucial 4 What makes a horse like the mud 5 It’s not just Irish horses who can thrive
Cheltenham is a stiff track on any going; on heavy ground, as it will be when the Festival commences today, the course becomes a serious examination of horse and rider. Any horse with a stamina deficiency is going to struggle to climb the hill to the finish and the effect of jumping errors will be exaggerated. The races will be run at a slower pace than in years when good ground has prevailed. Jockeys will be well aware of the dangers of burning out their mounts and having nothing left up the final hill. Consequently, the slower horses will be able to keep up when normally they would be struggling. Outsiders are likely to figure. Horsemanship and the ability to judge what is the most prudent speed at which to travel in heavy ground will win many races this week. It will take a brave rider to sit and bide their time, but patience will truly be a virtue with the mud flying and lungs bursting in the final stages. This year’s Festival starts on the heaviest ground for 36 years. Horses with low actions, particularly former Flat racers, are likely to struggle to get their feet out of the mud. Look for horses with a high knee action – they will love it. Strength will come to the fore rather than speed – as will courage. It is worth remembering that almost all Irish jumps races take place on soft or heavy ground and the wet winter here has meant that much of the racing has taken place on a similar surface. Even the very good horses, who one might expect to be more suited to faster ground that does not blunt their speed, have some form on it and should cope.