Trump will put America first at any cost

Tillerson’s removal leaves US foreign policy more hawkish and dependent on the president’s whim

Not long after the sacking of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, President Trump told reporters: “I’m really at a point where we’re getting very close to having the Cabinet and other things that I want.”

That may be the main takeaway from Tillerson’s firing: Trump is gradually shedding people and personnel who were restraining him. The president recently imposed steel and aluminum tariffs despite internal objections – a move that was followed by the resignation of top economic adviser Gary Cohn, who was described by the president as a “globalist” and “not quite as strong on those tariffs”.

Tillerson was encouraging Trump to keep the Iran nuclear deal in place; he was a voice in the administration for staying in the Paris climate treaty; he encouraged diplomacy with North Korea at a time when the president was reproaching him on Twitter – the medium through which the secretary of state was eventually dismissed – for pursuing futile negotiations.

Replacing Tillerson with CIA Director Mike Pompeo, as Trump hopes to do, increases the likelihood that the nuclear deal former President Obama negotiated with Iran will be terminated. It also signals a harder line on North Korea ahead of planned face-to-face talks between Trump and “little rocket man” Kim Jong-un.

Taken together with the tariffs and Trump’s unilateral decision to meet the North Korean dictator in defiance of the foreign policy establishment, it is a signal to the world that he is going to do whatever he feels necessary to protect American interests – even if the professionals don’t like it.

The big exception for many of Trump’s critics will be Russia: Tillerson’s firing comes the day after he went further than the White House press secretary in blaming Moscow for the poisoning of a former spy and his daughter inside the UK. Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee also closed its Russia investigation into the 2016 presidential election and exonerated Trump the previous day.

But Pompeo is arguably more hawkish towards Russia than Tillerson and has never doubted its interference in the election. It is unlikely that US policy toward Russia would become more conciliatory in a Pompeo-run State Department.

Instead, Trump will have a secretary of state who more clearly speaks for him than the hapless Tillerson and who is more closely aligned with him on major international issues.

In a sense, that is a victory for “nationalists” over “globalists” inside the administration. Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon reportedly sent a journalist a celebratory text about Tillerson’s departure. The Trump White House is projecting “America First” on steroids.

Yet it is also a win for a particular version of America First that is somewhat at odds with the way Trump campaigned as a sceptic of foreign wars. Pompeo’s nomination was celebrated by Senators Lindsey Graham and John Mccain, who are both hawks and internationalists. Senator Rand Paul, who agreed with Trump that the Iraq war was a “disaster,” voted against Pompeo becoming CIA director.

Paul’s vote could be more important this time around. The Republicans’ Senate majority is even smaller, 51-49. It is not guaranteed that Pompeo will actually become Secretary of State.

Clearly, however. cultivating good relations with the president is essential for success inside the Trump administration. Tillerson never really denied calling Trump a “moron.” He was viewed as an attempted moderating influence on the president – but not a particularly effective one. He was not even very popular with those who agreed with his preference for diplomacy over confrontation – largely because he was perceived as presiding over the State Department’s marginalisation. He was certainly at the helm as it was being downsized.

When Ronald Reagan was president, conservatives used to plead with his more moderate advisers to “Let Reagan be Reagan”. Former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski has exhorted current White House staffers and Cabinet members to “Let Trump be Trump”.

It looks like Lewandowski and the hawks will get their wish. Those hoping for a more restrained and realistic foreign policy may not be so lucky.