Minella Rocco to win a slog in the mud – this is my Hail Mary

One thing about Cheltenham, you are always flirting with the brutal side of sport. Ruby Walsh lit the place up on Tuesday, on Wednesday he was in hospital, but it would not be Cheltenham without heartbreak. We have had triumph and disaster and some wonderful races this week, and the best is still to come.

If the Gold Cup was decided on talent alone, then they would be handing the trophy over to Might Bite and company this morning. But he is like a footballer who has got all the skills but is as daft as a brush: he might boss the game, he might have a moment of madness. Last year, I thought he was coming to join us on the ITV podium via the Guinness Tent when he went walkabout during the RSA Chase. If the ground was good, I would fancy him for my life, but I am not sure he will be up for a war of attrition.

You need a horse who is brave and will stay every yard of the trip. Native River is bound to be popular and I am sure he will run well, but if you have a go at the Gold Cup and do not win it first time, you do not very often come back in glory. Sixty-six times this century a horse has tried to win the Gold Cup at the second time of asking, none have succeeded.

The form pick is probably Our Duke. However, I cannot help but aim a couple of quid each way at Minella Rocco, who I think I have backed every year at Cheltenham. I was not planning to this time, but Jonjo O’neill has been having such a bad time of it, a horrible season, and he is normally the Cheltenham maestro as well as being the nicest man in racing. It would just be such a great story if he could turn it all around in this.

Minella Rocco’s best effort was over four miles here on good-tosoft ground in 2016 in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup when he beat Native River and he will relish a slog in the mud. I am going for the Hail Mary at 25-1.

If Jonjo is the nicest man in racing then JP Mcmanus runs him close. I had lunch with JP this week and I was very mean to him, put him right on the spot just as he was tucking into his beef. I asked him for his biggest fancy this week, and he did not hesitate: Apple’s Shakira. We had Piers Morgan on the show on Tuesday and he wanted to know Sir Anthony Mccoy’s banker of the Festival. AP did not hesitate either: Apple’s Shakira. Enough said about the Triumph Hurdle, then.

In the County Hurdle, there is William H Bonney who I have followed over cliffs and should probably have given up on. In the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, he travelled like the wrath of God before, like many, getting tired in the ground. He will get you excited at a big price, but it is a question of whether he can go through with it. One day soon, he will.