Fishing deal leaves Davidson caught in a net

Scotland’s Tory leader is in a tough spot if control of British waters isn’t returned to trawlermen

Like Margaret Thatcher, whose talents were augmented by who and what she was up against, Ruth Davidson has been a lucky leader. Whereas Maggie had the Falklands war as well as only Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock to contend with, Ruth has had Alex Salmond’s and Nicola Sturgeon’s obsession with independence, which Scotland rejected in 2014, to boost her popularity.

Now, however, she is facing the hardest choice of her nearly seven years as Scottish Conservative leader. In the wake of the Brexit transition agreement, she has to choose between ordering her 13 angry MPS to bring down the government of Theresa May and letting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street, or ratting on a promise she made to Scottish trawlermen to give them back immediate control of the UK’S fishing grounds, thereby putting the Tory revival in Scotland under severe strain.

As many as half of the 12 seats won by the Tories last year were wrenched from the SNP thanks to La Davidson vowing to immediately end the Common Fisheries Policy’s hold over the British trawler fleet, most of which is based in Scotland. Moreover, in a recent joint declaration with Michael Gove, she said this would happen as soon as the UK leaves the EU next March.

Not so. Under the new Brussels accord we’ll remain bound by

CFP rules for the next two years, although from 2019 to 2020 we’ll be “consulted” about its operation. In other words, say critics, we will be in the room where the decisions are made, but not at the table.

This is not good enough for the fishermen. They want changes in how much fish they’re allowed to catch to come into force now. Under existing rules, for instance, the British share of the bounty around our shores is only 40 per cent, compared with the 60 per cent taken by boats from other parts of the EU. Danish boats take 40 times more fish and shellfish from British waters than we do from theirs.

But more worrying is that the Davis/barnier deal has conceded that sovereignty can remain in Brussels for the time being. As Bertie Armstrong, the leader of the Scottish fishermen, commented yesterday: “What is temporary in Brussels often ends up permanent.” He wants to emulate Norway and Iceland – both major fishing nations that are not in the EU. The former takes 84 per cent of the fish caught in its territorial waters, while the latter takes a whopping 90 per cent. And he claims that Britain’s economy would get a boost of around £1 billion a year if we could achieve such results.

But while the fishermen and the Scottish Tories are demanding a rocksolid deal, returning full sovereignty to the UK, there are concerns that if Britain tries to ban all EU boats from our territorial waters after 2020 we risk triggering a veto from Spain, or any of the other major European fishing nations, to the entire Brexit deal. This would result in thousands of Spaniards in the fishing industry being made redundant and is not thought to be a very good idea by British negotiators.

There is fury in Scottish Tory circles at the complacency exhibited by those close to Theresa May, who believe that voters in Scottish seats won by the Tories last year have nowhere else to go. After all, says Downing Street, the main opposition in those seats is the Eu-enthusiastic SNP, which would force fishermen to remain in the CFP in an independent Scotland.

This is certain to be Ruth Davidson’s rejoinder when she faces Nicola Sturgeon’s scorn at Holyrood tomorrow – although by braying “betrayal”, the SNP hope to win back those crucial seats.

This has been an extremely trying period for the Scottish Tory leader. An ardent Remainer, she wanted the UK to stay in the customs union and single market. Now her trenchant views on the CFP have also been rejected by Downing Street.

In spite of all of that, she would appear to have no option but to swallow her bile and support what was agreed this week. “It’s a rubbish agreement, but it’s either that or Corbyn,” said one leading MP. Still, the parliamentary timetable would appear to be on her side. Barring unforeseen crises, the next Holyrood election is not due until 2021 and that for Westminster until a year later. Davidson will hope her luck holds.