PM’S showdown with Putin has boosted her standing and Brexit
There may still be bumps on the road to Brexit, but thanks to Russia it is now accepted as inevitable
There is nothing quite like standing up to a foreign bully to enhance a leader’s domestic reputation. Margaret Thatcher only became La Stupenda after the Falklands; before the successful prosecution of the war she was in serious difficulties, albeit helped by the shambles in the Labour Party under Michael Foot. Her biggest concern was the new, centrist SDP, but they were blown out of the water along with the Argentinian navy.
However, political benefits do not always follow diplomatic sabrerattling. Mrs Thatcher led the international military response to Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait in 1990, yet she was still ejected from office even as half a million coalition troops deployed for Operation Desert Storm. For a few months after Saddam Hussein was finally toppled 15 years ago next week, Tony Blair basked in the reflected glory of what seemed to be a welcome regime change, before it all went horribly wrong. Similarly, David Cameron strolled the streets of Tripoli with Nicolas Sarkozy to soak up the cheers of grateful Libyans for getting rid of Colonel Gaddafi. The country remains in turmoil and neither leader garnered any plaudits at home for their adventurism.
For now, though, Theresa May looks and sounds substantially more prime ministerial for the way she has responded to the Salisbury poisoning outrage. Her success – and that of Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary – in pulling together a co-ordinated international response to President Putin’s recklessness, is outstanding. To get some 30 countries to agree to withdraw diplomats is a resounding message that his revanchist inclinations will be resisted. The danger of the UK being left isolated, thereby tempting Mr Putin to go further and risking a military collision, has been averted.
The events of the past few weeks have allowed Mrs May to play to her strengths of stern-faced implacability, though whether there will be a longterm domestic premium remains to be seen. But the immediate reward has been over Brexit. Facing down Putin has coincided with the transition deal that keeps the UK in pretty much the same relationship with the EU as it is now until the end of 2020. In the Commons on Monday, when Mrs May might have expected a rough ride from both hard-line Brexiteers and ultra-remainers, it was telling that they stayed their hands.
Even though the agreement ushers in a state of vassalage disliked by Jacob Rees-mogg – since we will be subject to EU law for 21 months, while having no say over what goes on – he conceded that he could live with it provided that, when we do eventually leave, we will be out of the single market, the customs union and free of any jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (though the latter is still a moot point). On the Remain side, Nicky Morgan congratulated the Prime Minister for providing businesses with “much-needed certainty.”
So has peace broken out or a truce been called? Not entirely. The Lords are still grappling with the EU Withdrawal Bill and Labour wants to prevent the final “meaningful vote” becoming a take-it-or-leave it moment – either accept the deal or leave without one. The key moment in this saga is still the autumn showdown when Mrs May puts the whole package to Parliament.
If she gets anything like the bespoke trade deal that ministers are increasingly confident of securing then she should have the votes. But Labour desperately wants to defeat the Government at some point and staying in a customs union is their chosen battleground. Indeed, it would be remarkable if Mrs May escaped unscathed from one of the biggest challenges to have faced a peacetime government.
But while there may be bumps on the road to Brexit, the prospect of it not happening at all is receding for those whom Rees-mogg has likened to Japanese soldiers fighting on years after the war ended. Tony Blair will be the last to emerge blinking from the jungle, still wondering how he could not reverse Brexit through the sheer force of his personality.
From tomorrow, then, there will be just one year to go, after 46 years of European membership. Mrs May and her senior ministers will travel around the country to extol the benefits of something that most of them have been fairly lukewarm about until recently. A readiness to take their case to the country demonstrates confidence that a politically saleable deal is achievable and the EU is ready to offer one.
Notwithstanding transition or the likelihood that trade talks will still be going on, March 29 will be Brexit Day. But how should it be marked? Given the acrimony it has engendered, can we observe this momentous occasion without deepening the divisions.
Many Remain voters are now resigned to leaving, but don’t want their noses rubbed in it. In 1973, there were no wild revelries when we joined the Common Market on January 1. In Brussels, pro-marketeers gathered at the Queen Victoria, a British-owned pub, to toast the new dawn without much enthusiasm.
The Daily Telegraph reported that a group in Schuman Square waved paper Union flags and sang Roll Out the Barrel. “An attempt was made to sing Land of Hope and Glory, but it petered out.” The Guardian observed: “It was difficult to tell that anything of importance had occurred and a date which will be entered in the history books as long as histories of Britain are written, was taken by most people as a matter of course... The principal party political figures maintained their familiar postures of hope and optimism or head-shaking despair.” Nothing changes, then.
Edward Heath, who took us into Europe, wanted something upbeat, so a series of events was laid on, dubbed “A Fanfare for Europe”. This included a football international at Wembley between the three new members (UK, Denmark and Ireland) against the existing six, which the joiners – captained by Bobby Charlton – won 2-0. After a fireworks display, the celebrations culminated in a gala evening at the Royal Opera House attended by the Queen.
Brexit Day next year cannot go unmarked. But does anyone have a suggestion that might bring the country together, or are we just going to pretend it never happened?