Winter crisis could turn into summer crisis, NHS is warned

THE NHS is likely to see the “winter crisis” turn into a summer crisis, according to analysis by the British Medical Association (BMA).

The health service came under unprecedented pressure this winter, as A&E attendances, waiting times and admissions reached alarming levels.

While the summer months would normally see the situation ease, the BMA believes levels of demand and activity this summer will mirror winters of two or three years ago.

Using official data from the last five years, the BMA’S health policy team forecast a number of scenarios for this summer’s NHS performance.

The BMA calculated figures – based on NHS England data – that suggest the worst-case scenario for July, August and September would see the health service experience a repeat of winter 2016, with 6.2million A&E attendances and 774,000 people waiting for more than four hours. This equates to just 87.5per cent of patients being seen within four hours, with 147,000 trolley waits of four or more hours and 1.57million emergency admissions.

The best-case scenario would be comparable to winter 2015, with 5.89 million A&E attendances and 89.6per cent meeting the four-hour target. It would also involve 1.51 million emergency admissions and 127,000 trolley waits of four hours or more.

The BMA said that traditionally, the summer offers respite, but that the implications for trusts are that winter contingency plans remain in place.

NHS England previously said this winter has seen NHS staff having to work in a “perfect storm” of bad weather, high admissions due to flu and a renewed spike in norovirus.