Action against Assad is now more dangerous

Exactly a year ago, the Americans responded to a chemical attack in Syria by bombing an airbase from which the planes thought to have delivered the gas had flown. The action was surprising, given Donald Trump’s predilection for staying out of the Middle East conflict, other than to confront the threat to US security posed by the Islamic State group. The White House drew comparisons between the strike and the inaction of the previous US administration, which had drawn red lines against the use of chemical weapons in Syria but then abandoned them.

Now that there is seemingly irrefutable evidence of an even more horrific use of gas on rebels in the suburb of Douma near Damascus, and President Trump has said that there will be a “big price to pay”, what will Washington do?

The last US air strike was supposed to be a one-off, making the consequences of breaking international law apparent to President Assad. But it has evidently not done so. Despite the inevitable denials, the pictures from the Syrian town appear to show people, including children, with the telltale signs of chlorine gas poisoning. Moreover, the alleged direct involvement of Russia, which is backing the regime in Damascus, makes this latest incident a potential flashpoint between Moscow and Nato countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia following the Salisbury poisoning.

Moscow is following its usual template: the Kremlin first says that there has been no chemical weapons attack, then rejects any involvement if there has been, and finally blames the rebels for killing their own people. The fact is that the Russians are the only military power in the region either able to carry out or to permit such an attack.

When Assad used sarin gas in 2013, he was told to expect a military retaliation, but it never happened. The Commons voted against British involvement and thereby stayed President Obama’s hand, creating a power vacuum that has been filled by Russia and Iran. Had the West acted decisively in 2013, President Putin might not have been able to exploit American vacillation in the way he has. But matters are more dangerous than they were a year ago. Not only is Russia involved, but Turkey is fighting the Kurds, the Americans are still bombing Isil (though President Trump wants to withdraw from the region), Iran is flexing its muscles and Israel is nervous. Perhaps we all should be.