How to pick a winner

Our (hopefully foolproof) guide on what to back

Even in the constant evolution of the Grand National – it is unrecognisable from the race run 20 years ago – there are some constants. The demands of this unique contest remain severe, particularly on testing ground.

A horse needs to have stamina, athleticism and to jump well, plus, nowadays, it must also possess a good amount of class if it is to conquer Aintree.

My approach is to use a blend of statistics, form data gathered from previous racecourse outings, and a measure of intuition garnered from having watched and studied the past 40 Grand Nationals.

I believe that age is perhaps the biggest negative. Old horses do not win Grand Nationals. Amberleigh House in 2004 was the last successful 12-year-old and the race is fast becoming a young horse’s domain – the past three winners were aged eight, nine and eight.

The plots of old when a quiet preparation was used, perhaps over hurdles, have largely vanished. Good recent form has been almost essential to get into the race as the class of the runners has climbed. Money won is a reasonable guide to this factor, especially money won this season. One For Arthur last year had won 63 per cent of his total haul that season. Many Clouds in 2015 had won 83 per cent of his total prize money in his winning season.

I produce my own ratings for the horses but in this unique race it will rarely be the horse with the highest figure that wins, as the ratings come from races that have made completely different demands on the horse. That said, a decent level of ability is required and I have found that a minimum figure of 150 is a good base from which to start. It is worth noting that the high-figure horses do often grab a place.

Although there are no hard and fast rules – this is a horse race after all – a reasoned approach is surely the best way of attacking the event.