Syrian leader and backers are behind worst war crimes of recent times
For seven years, we have read the same news from Syria. Backed by allies in Moscow and Tehran, Assad’s murderous dictatorship has been crushing an increasingly Islamist rebellion.
Hundreds of thousands have been killed, millions more displaced. This is one of the worst tragedies in the modern era. This wasn’t inevitable. As I noted in the paper Jo Cox and I wrote for Policy Exchange – The Cost of Doing Nothing – we chose not to act. What’s happening now isn’t inevitable either.
There is a way out, but it will be hard and the truth is, it isn’t really down to us. The resolution requires three things. First, the end of outside involvement. Typically, civil wars burn themselves out unless foreign elements stoke the flames. In Syria, they’re not just stoking it, they’re pouring on petrol.
The most important of these is Iran, whose Revolutionary Guard and Lebanese client militia Hizbollah have led much of the fighting. They’ve done little against Isil but focused instead on the rebel areas around Aleppo and in the west. Their partners have been Russian. Putting technical capability alongside Assad’s willingness to use any means at his disposal, they have enabled the brutal clearance operations that have seen chemical weapons used to murder civilians.
On the other side, Turkey, Jordan and others have been involved in supporting other factions. But as their extremism has grown, the funding has reduced. Following Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s speech about reclaiming an older, more tolerant Islam, it seems unlikely to return.
Second, talks need to start in earnest. Geneva has been hosting discussions between the warring parties for years now.
It is simply wrong to say that political options haven’t been tried, they’ve been ongoing. They have just achieved nothing. Because despite what some say, Assad and his Russian and Iranian backers believe there is a military solution to this problem. Indeed, their combination of brutality and dishonesty has seen them perpetrate some of the greatest war crimes in recent years with useful idiots, paid propagandists and fellow travellers promoting their lies so that they escape the blame.
Third, and finally, there needs to be a process of justice. Not just of Syrians, and not of every combatant. But for the more egregious crimes – ordering ethnic cleansing, participating in mass rape, enabling chemical weapons use – those who conducted these acts need to be held accountable. But given the first two are needed to get to the third, and both of those rely on Russian cooperation, it seems likely that Alexander Zhuravlev, the Russian commander of Syrian operations, will not be prosecuted anytime soon.