It’ll be grim down south when weather patterns shift

AS A comment on the weather, there is something about the phrase “it’s grim down south” that doesn’t sound right. The northern areas, after all, have traditionally been worst affected by Britain’s turbulent climate.

But according to long-term Met Office modelling, by the end of the century summers could be drier in Scotland and the North of England than they are in the South, with rainfall in some areas down by up to 50 per cent.

When rainfall does occur in the North, it is likely to be more extreme, bringing a higher risk of flash floods. However, a previous Met Office study focusing on the South of England predicted a significant increase in summer showers that will also become more intense.

Meteorologists attributed the predicted changes to global warming and based their calculations on the premise that the world will continue to emit increasing levels of greenhouse gases. They used high-resolution modelling to examine rainfall at a 1.5km (0.9mile) scale, the same measure used for daily weather forecasts.

It found that the daily average winter rainfall was likely to increase by 10 to 35 per cent in parts of the Scottish Central Lowlands, western Scottish Highlands and the Lake District, but fall 10 to 25 per cent around Aberdeen.

In the summer, daily average rainfall is projected to fall across northern Britain, with many areas including the central belt of Scotland experiencing reductions of 25 to 50 per cent.

High-intensity rainstorms that involve 10mm or more of rain an hour are likely to become more frequent, the study found, while less intense rainy weather is set to become less common. ♦ Parts of Britain are set to see snow this weekend in a return to wintry conditions just days after a mini heatwave.

In contrast to last week’s hottest April day for 70 years, a yellow rain warning was issued for eastern England and South East England from 9pm tomorrow until midnight on Monday.

Rainfall of at least 1in (25mm) is expected in many areas of the South East, but some could receive more than 2.5in (70mm). Daytime temperatures in rural parts of the South East are expected to struggle to reach 41F (5C) with the Met Office warning it could be cold enough to produce snow on high ground.