Tories need a strong message to win votes
Never read too much into local elections. Theresa May’s strong performance in May 2017 led to predictions of a landslide at the next general election. So she held one, and it did not come to pass. Personality and local issues make a big difference in council seats; turnout is tiny. Nevertheless, out of the many narratives competing for attention in this week’s English poll, one does stand out. Labour said it would soar and it didn’t. Philosophical conservatism can win, if it is given a voice.
Jeremy Corbyn is political Marmite. Yes, he attracts a substantial, loyal following – but he alienates as many as he wins. His failure to condemn Russia without reservation for the Salisbury chemical attack was compounded by his handling of the charge of anti-semitism against some of his activists. That’s probably why the Conservatives took Barnet council in London, which has a significant Jewish population. If anyone wonders why the Windrush scandal did not hurt the Tories as clearly as anti-semitism hurt Labour, it is partly because of the different ways each injustice was handled. The Conservatives apologised for Windrush and the Home Secretary resigned. Mr Corbyn has, in effect, doubleddown. The morning after the local elections, Ken Livingstone, a key ally of the Labour leader, was back on television talking about Adolf Hitler.
Even Mr Corbyn’s supporters must see his limitations. Labour failed to break through in most of its target seats despite eight years of Tory government, the impact of austerity on councils, and multiple ministerial resignations. Does anyone doubt that Yvette Cooper or Liz Kendall or even Ed Miliband would have done better? This is not automatically good news for Mrs May, however, if it means that the only thing holding back the Labour tide is Mr Corbyn.
That said, the Tories showed some life of their own. They advanced in towns outside London that voted Leave. The Conservatives performed well in Basildon (69 per cent Leave), Cannock Chase (69 per cent), Dudley (68 per cent), Nuneaton (66 per cent) and Peterborough (61 per cent). The proximate cause is the fall in the Ukip vote, which represents the coming-together of a pro-brexit coalition that, among other things, wants proper controls on immigration. As this newspaper has argued, legitimate outrage at the Windrush affair – in which legal citizens were persecuted by the state – will not translate into popular sympathy for illegal immigration. Mrs May understands that they are completely different matters, and her dogged approach to border control might be one reason why she is still quietly respected by so many voters.
An obvious conclusion from Thursday’s vote is that, regardless of what a handful of Remainer Tories think, the future of Conservatism lies with Brexit. The public wants to see it done on time and in full, which means leaving the customs union. At the very worst, failure would undermine this emerging electoral alliance of shires and workingclass towns. At the very best, getting Brexit right would generate trade, create jobs and attract many more into the Tory fold.
That message of capitalism revived should not be limited to Brexit. The Tories held their own in parts of London that voted overwhelming for Remain: Wandsworth, that cradle of Thatcherism, backed EU membership by 75 per cent. The country as a whole will vote for a UK domestic agenda that cuts taxes and delivers better value services. The Government remains far too cautious in policy. Growth is low in the UK while in the US the economy is being powered along by radical tax cuts.
Accepting all the usual qualifiers that come with local elections – and remembering what a mixed predictor they can be – Thursday did demonstrate that Britain is not moving fast to the Left, but is stuck somewhere between two political tribes reluctant to surrender an inch to each other. The Tories might be able to sustain Britain’s political stalemate by playing on fears of what Mr Corbyn would do in Number 10. But if they ever want a real majority in the Commons, they’ll have to come out for something rather than just being against someone.