Deaths unexpectedly jump by 20,000 in four months

Increase in mortality is not a blip, say experts as they demand a Government inquiry into the NHS

RESEARCHERS are calling for an urgent investigation to find an explanation for more than 20,000 “additional deaths” so far this year, amid severe pressure on the NHS. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that in the first 16 weeks of the year, there were 20,215 more deaths in England and Wales than the average for the comparable period over the previous five years.

In March, academics raised concerns that Britain was facing a rise in mortality rates and argued that “health chiefs were failing to investigate a clear pattern of worsening health outcomes”, in an editorial for the British Medical Journal (BMJ). The piece centred on the finding that there were 10,000 “additional deaths” in the first seven weeks of the year and concluded “that neither ’flu, nor cold weather appeared to be the main cause”.

Now the authors have updated their findings to account for fresh statistics covering the first 16 weeks of the year. Their response, published on the BMJ website this week, argues that the latest statistics “sadly provide little reassurance of this being a ‘blip’ as some have suggested”.

There were 198,943 deaths in the first 16 weeks of 2018, compared with an average of 178,778 deaths in the same period over the previous five years.

The figure for this year represents an 11.3 per cent increase on the five-year average.

The weekly average for the same period was 12,434 deaths, compared with a five-year average of 11,174. The 20,215 figure is equivalent to an additional death every eight minutes throughout the period.

The editorial was written by Prof Danny Dorling of the University of Oxford and Dr Lucinda Hiam of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Prof Dorling who advocated a Government inquiry, told The Daily Telegraph: “We would like an urgent investigation by the House of Commons health select committee.

“The Department of Health and Social Care is not taking the slowdown in improvements in mortality seriously. The figures for this year make the case for an investigation both stronger and more urgent with each passing day.”

Following the publication of the initial study in March, the authors wrote to Sarah Wollaston MP, chairman of the committee.

She was unavailable for comment when contacted this week.

A Department for Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “We keep all research in this area under review, but the ‘age standardised mortality rate’ – which had been broadly stable in recent years – is considered a much more reliable measure, as this type of research doesn’t take into account fluctuations in population numbers and the ageing population.”