Brexiteers think they’re in control. In reality, their position is weak

The Leave camp may huff and puff about Mrs May’s capitulation to the EU, but they have nowhere to go

See… saw… see… saw… the advantage has swung back towards the Brexiteers – or so they think. The Prime Minister has yet again reiterated her pledges to take back control of Britain’s money, borders and laws. And yesterday, Michael Gove went on TV to talk down her idea for a “customs partnership” due to “significant questions over its deliverability”. This is Gove-speak for what the Foreign Secretary has already said: it’s crazy.

Each time it seems as if Theresa May is about to betray the Eurosceptics, she pulls back. But her conciliatory feints disguise the truth: the Brexiteers are in a weak position, and it’s getting weaker. At the heart of this weakness is the agreement that Mrs May struck in December. Few Brexiteers except Mr Gove seem to realise it, but that was the moment when the Prime Minister gave up on everything they want. Her policy since then has been to drift until confronted, and then make a “strong statement” to convince the Eurosceptics that she’s still on board. Surprisingly, this seems to be working.

Mrs May surrendered on two major issues: the cash and the Irish border. Regarding the cash, she not only agreed to pay up (which hardly matters, since we would have paid up anyway if we had stayed in the EU); she also gave up on using the cash as leverage to secure a trade deal. Without any legal conditionality attached to our EU payments, Britain’s biggest bargaining chip disappeared.

Then there’s Ireland. In her desperation for a “breakthrough”, the Prime Minister agreed to a form of wording that is wholly incompatible with her Brexit promises. The December document says that if Brussels doesn’t fancy our alternative suggestions for the Irish border, Britain will maintain “full alignment” with EU rules. The “customs partnership” idea now preoccupying our government is, at best, irrelevant and, at worst, a smokescreen for effectively staying in the customs union, as Ireland wants. Simon Coveney, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, said as much on the BBC yesterday when he voiced support for an EU-UK “customs partnership”.

Despite all of this, the Brexiteers act relaxed. When I asked Parliament’s chief Brexiteer, Jacob Rees-mogg, why, he shrugged it off. The Irish backstop is a “meaningless” piece of paper, he said. Legally, perhaps. But diplomatically, that piece of paper is a set of shackles, and it’s one that the EU and Ireland fully intend to use. The Brexiteers tend to repeat its comforting mantra: “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” The problem is that Mrs May’s concessions have now made “everything” a very unpalatable option. And they cannot be sure that, given the choice, Mrs May will choose “nothing” over “everything”.

Unfortunately, without being willing to risk “nothing” – a “no deal” Brexit – we will not break the impasse over Ireland. The EU will stick to its guns, betting that our Prime Minister doesn’t have the stomach to walk out for real. It is just about possible that it is wrong. Perhaps, in the autumn, Mrs May will undergo a personality transplant, jump up and shout: “Non!” God knows she will have left it horribly late to take her stand, but stranger things have happened. The likelihood, however, is that this won’t happen. Instead, she will sign on the dotted line.

What, then, will be the options available to the Brexiteers? There are two possibilities. The first is that they try to force her out. So we’d see an en-masse resignation of Brexiteer Cabinet ministers and a flood of letters to the 1922 Committee. Before a leadership contest can start, though, the rules require Tory MPS to hold a vote of no confidence in their leader. Mrs May would almost certainly survive such a vote. Hardcore Brexiteers account for no more than 100 MPS on the Conservative benches. That leaves more than 200 loyalists to keep her in place.

Eurosceptics would still have a second potential way to stop the Prime Minister from reneging on her Brexit promises. Thanks to the amendments passed by Remainers, which require Parliament to be given a “meaningful” vote on Brexit, MPS will have the chance to vote on the deal she brings back from Brussels. If Mrs May has made too many concessions, Brexiteers could simply vote it down.

They would, ironically, be using a tool crafted by their opponents. The Remainers’ thinking was that, because they make up a majority in both Houses, holding a parliamentary vote on Brexit would help their cause. But most Remainers sit on the Labour and SNP benches. Labour will certainly never vote to take joint responsibility for Mrs May’s Brexit by endorsing it. So Mrs May needs all of her MPS and the DUP to pass the deal.

To Brexiteers, this is a backdoor way of achieving their ends. They think that if the government’s deal fails in Parliament, we will simply cruise out of the EU with no deal at all. And if Mrs May doesn’t want to be in the driver’s seat, well, she can move over.

There are two problems with this plan. First, if she is rejected by the Brexiteers, the spurned Mrs May could seek out other parliamentary allies. A cross-party alliance of Remainers, who far outnumber Brexiteers, might offer her a bargain: we’ll vote for your godforsaken deal if you return to Brussels to water it down further, or if you hold a second referendum on it.

Second, Mrs May could play the most deadly card of all: holding a parliamentary vote of confidence in her government. The Brexiteers would then be in an absurd position. Either they would vote to keep her in place despite having rejected her most important and defining policy, or they would vote to topple her, which could trigger either the formation of a pro-remain “unity” government or fresh elections.

Meanwhile, the public would be watching in disbelief. Even if the Brexiteers did manage to scupper Mrs May’s deal, there will be precious little time left for preparing the country for a “no deal”. And if there is one sure-fire way to frighten markets and undermine confidence in Brexit and Brexiteers, it is by tipping the government into full-blown chaos. It’s a scenario that is certainly seen as very helpful by those people who want Britain to hold a second referendum.

The Brexiteers might huff and puff, but they have lost control of Brexit. With every day that passes, it gets harder to see how they can take it back.