Little time and less strategy for Brexit

The EU summit, at which key decisions are due to be made about the UK’S post-brexit customs arrangements, takes place at the end of next month. The preparatory work will need to be finished at least a week beforehand so that the 27 other member states can be consulted by the Commission. This means just five weeks remain for this matter to be settled; and yet the Government has not even got a unified position.

The Cabinet’s Brexit sub-committee has failed to reach agreement on the two options: first, a customs partnership under which the UK would collect the EU’S external tariffs, which has been dismissed as “crazy” by Boris Johnson; second, a technology-based solution, which is favoured by Brexiteers but does not apparently meet Theresa May’s pledge to avoid a hard border in Ireland.

How is this to be resolved? In what must be a first for British governance, ministers have been put into two teams to examine the options, with the Prime Minister favouring the partnership plan that a majority of her committee colleagues rejected. Yet Michael Gove, a leading figure in the Leave campaign, yesterday said “significant question marks” remained over the idea.

If these divisions are so fundamental, it is hard to see them being settled in five weeks. One side will need to give way and Mrs May is determined it will not be her. In a newspaper article yesterday she promised a solution that ensured frictionless trade, enabled the UK to strike trade deals around the world and did not result in a hard border on the island of Ireland. None of these appear achievable if the technical option is pursued, since it would involve infrastructure either at or near the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister, predicted the talks would become “very difficult” if this were to become the UK’S chosen approach. Yet as Andrew Parker, the head of MI5, will point out in a speech today, the rest of Europe needs a deal with the UK because of the importance of crossborder co-operation in the fight against terrorism.

Is it the PM’S strategy to call all these bluffs by maintaining uncertainty until the last minute, when she will push for her preferred option as the only way of avoiding a breakdown? In her weekend article, she promised to deliver Brexit but said compromise was needed. The question many Leavers are now asking themselves is whether the Brexit on offer will be worth it.