Fast-improving Young Rascal one to beat

Trying to find the winner of the Investec Derby, perennially, involves a few steps into the unknown. How will a horse cope with Epsom? Will it stay and, this year, can it cope with the ground?

If there is only guesswork surrounding the outcome, the favourite Saxon Warrior makes little appeal at a short price. He jumped to the head of the Derby market when winning the 2,000 Guineas, but that race is over four furlongs less than today’s race and it was a steadily-run affair, showcasing his speed more than anything else.

In a fine career so far he has proved he has class, tenacity and courage – three qualities he will find of great use today – but will they be enough? I believe not.

One horse about whom there are possibly fewest imponderables is Young Rascal. He is, according to my figures at least, the horse that is improving fastest. He was too immature to show his true self in one run as a juvenile but is a different horse this year. He leapt from winning a Newbury maiden, despite showing inexperience, to landing a determined victory in a tried-and-tested Derby trial, the Chester Vase, just 18 days later.

He is proven on ground with give in it – at Newbury – he stays the Derby distance – Chester proved that – and, invaluably, he was sent to get a sight of the track at Breakfast with The Stars. I have a strong feeling he could be very good indeed later this year.

There are numerous probable improvers for the step up in trip. Delano Roosevelt, already a smart horse, is expected to make the most progress.