Nicola Sturgeon’s star is finally fading

Ignore the SNP cheers. Scotland’s First Minister is battling through the worst period of her political life

One of life’s strictest rules is: “Never have a bigger car than your boss”. However, Glasgow’s Lord Provost Eva Bolander is certain to break it today if she motors to her party’s spring conference in Aberdeen. She’s just taken possession of a £150,000 Rolls-royce Ghost, a V6, 8mpg monster, gifted to her city by a mystery donor.

And while First Minister Nicola Sturgeon makes do with a relatively modest Volvo, Ms Bolander seems determined to hang on to her “Roller”, in spite of an increasingly embarrassing row over an SNP bigwig displaying such conspicuous riches at a time when her council has abolished free swimming lessons for school children and doubled childcare costs.

But if “Rollergate” appears relatively minor, it nevertheless adds to a general malaise afflicting Scotland’s governing party and, especially, of its leader. For all her bluster and bravado – and she’s still a bonnie fighter – Ms Sturgeon is going through easily the worst period of her political life. A silly council boss failing to realise the political pitfalls of swanning around in a Rolls-royce at a time of austerity may be brushed aside but serious problems in other major government departments cannot.

There are the repeated demands for the health minister to be sacked, given that every day seems to bring more horror tales of waiting-times targets missed, operations cancelled and regional health boards mired in financial trouble.

At Justice, the minister is beset with a deepening crisis over the use of home curfew orders for violent offenders, which saw a father of three knifed to death by a killer who the police had failed to arrest after he’d broken his curfew restrictions. Police Scotland, an amalgamation of all eight former regional forces, is advertising for a new chief constable after the previous one, as well as the head of the police authority, resigned following a welter of alleged breaches of discipline. And Ms Sturgeon’s declared intention of closing the attainment gap between rich and poor pupils grinds on at an agonisingly slow pace – principally because she didn’t get cracking on it early enough. The economic prospects look bleak and middle earners are feeling the pinch of higher Scotland-only income taxes.

According to the likes of Ruth Davidson, the Tory leader, the main trouble is that the SNP leader’s only priority is holding another referendum on independence. And it’s this obsession that is increasing Ms Sturgeon’s unpopularity with voters.

In many parts of Scotland, the insult “That Bloody Woman” refers no longer to Margaret Thatcher but to Ms Sturgeon. And there’s little doubt that it’s not Thatcherism but “Sturgeonism” that’s putting off the voters – this stubborn determination, no matter what, to hold another referendum on independence, four years after the last defeat.

Such feelings will be in no way manifest at this weekend’s conference; the bulk of SNP activists, many of whom joined the party after the 2014 referendum defeat, still worship their leader. But in the bars and fringe meetings things may be very different. To experienced Nat campaigners Ms Sturgeon is not the force she once was.

In addition and ironically, for a party that trumpets its leftist credentials at every opportunity, some of the more trenchant criticism of Sturgeonism is coming from precisely that direction.

The so-called Growth Commission report, which was supposed to provide an economic launch pad for another vote on independence, has been heavily criticised by middle of the road economists but has also been attacked by Left-wing former ministers and MPS who claim that its recommendation to keep the pound would prolong, not end, austerity.

There will be clamour this weekend for Ms Sturgeon to lead her troops once more into separatist battle but she will hold her fire until she sees if the ultimate Brexit deal gives her sufficient ammunition to win this time round. However, everyone knows that the buck stops with her in this already tired-looking and out-of-sorts party and government, with the result that the fate of the independence movement rests on her slim shoulders.

Easily the most obvious problem, however, is that Sturgeonism has won few converts to the cause and unless there is a dramatic change that’s very likely to remain the case.