Revealed The formula for picking a World Cup winner

Struggling to work out who to back in Russia this summer? Never fear – Alistair Tweedale has crunched the numbers to discover the key ingredients for a champion team at football’s biggest showpiece

World ranking

Fifa’s world ranking system has some well-established flaws, so we have used Elo ratings until 2000, a system that incorporates factors such as margin of victory, importance of match and home advantage in its ranking of international football teams.

We found that the team ranked No1 in the world going into the World Cup tend not to win it.

In the past 17 tournaments, dating back to the 1950 World Cup, only Brazil in 1962 have been victorious as the highest-ranked team on the planet.

In fact, the country ranked as world No1 almost invariably underperform. Five of the past 17 world No1s going into the World Cup have crashed out at the group stage, including France in 2002 and Spain in 2014. Only three have made the final.

On six occasions since 1950, the winners have been the second-best team in the world according to the rankings, including Spain in 2010 and Germany in 2014. On five more occasions, the World Cup winners have been ranked third or fourth.

That said, there have been five winners who have gone into the tournament ranked eighth or lower, including Italy in 2006, who went to Germany as the 13th-best side in the world.

Verdict Being ranked second, third or fourth gives you the best chance historically, so Brazil, Belgium and Portugal should take heart. Champions Germany (right), as world No1, should be wary.

Qualifying form

It is difficult to see what impact a 4-0 win against Malta in September will have on England’s chances in Russia nearly a year later. As a format, qualifying games spread over 18 months are utterly removed from a packed tournament schedule.

Indeed, qualifying form can be more or less disregarded. The past two World Cup winners, Germany and Spain, have enjoyed almost perfect records in qualification, but before that the eventual winners made plenty of mistakes in qualifying.

Pre-2002, Brazil lost six of their 18 games and finished in the last of the four automatic qualifying positions; pre-1990, West Germany won half their games and only qualified as one of the best runners-up.

Verdict Get to the tournament by whatever means necessary and forget about qualifying results.

Tournament clout

Despite the prophecies of the Lightning Seeds, football has only ever come home once, in 1966. Since then, the World Cup has never been won by a team who had not previously won an international tournament.

Spain in 2010 and France in 1998 both won the World Cup having never previously even made it to the final, but both had a European Championship title to their name. Argentina were first-time World Cup winners in 1978, but had won the Copa America 12 times previously.

Verdict Winners win. We are unlikely to see a new tournament winner this summer, but Portugal’s experience in France in 2016 could be a significant help.

Squad age

The average age of the players making up World Cup-winning squads has remained largely consistent since 1950 – about 26.

The oldest winners were Italy in 2006, with 10 players aged 29 or older and an average squad age of 28.2. The youngest winners were Brazil in 1970, who had five players aged 20 or under and nobody over 30. Their squad’s average age was just 24.4.

The average age of the 17 World Cup-winning squads since 1950 is 26.4, which confirms the received wisdom of when footballers hit their peak. It pays to have as many players as possible around that age.

Verdict The experience that comes with age is important. By this logic, Brazil and Spain could struggle this summer, with both their squads averaging 28, while Argentina’s squad is even older, at 28.7. Gareth Southgate can take heart from the fact the average age of his England squad is close to the winning average, at 26.1.

International squad experience

The average number of caps in World Cup-winning squads is on the rise. In 1954, the players in West Germany’s squad had just 154 caps between them – an average of seven each.

Between 1962 and 1998, the average number of caps among World Cup winners was always between 20 and 28, but since the turn of the century experience has become even more important, even though the average age of winning teams has not increased.

Italy’s 2006 winners had 32.9 caps each, on average, Spain had 38.3 in 2010 and Germany in 2014 had 42.2, the highest by a distance.

Examples of tyros thriving at World Cups are becoming rarer, and the past three World Cup triumphs suggest players in whom a country’s football team has

invested lots of time are of huge importance. Of the 23 players in Italy’s 2006 squad, eight had at least 40; 11 of Spain’s 2010 squad had 40-plus caps; and 10 of Germany’s 2014 side had that many.

Verdict Both Spain and Germany have lost big players to age in recent years and go to this summer’s tournament slightly less experienced as a result, but they both still possess that experienced core. England’s squad are distinctly lacking that.

Squad representation

Shock, horror – clubs that do well have the best players. But World Cup-winning squads do tend to be most strongly represented by teams who have been successful in the lead-up to the tournament.

Bayern Munich were heavily represented in West Germany’s 1990 squad, having just won the Bundesliga. Monaco made the Champions League semi-finals before France ’98 and then had the most players in France’s squad. Sao Paulo won the ‘league’ stage of their domestic top flight before forming the bulk of Brazil’s squad in their 2002 campaign. Similarly, Juventus (league winners in 2006), Barcelona (2010) and Bayern Munich (2014) all had the most players in the respective World Cup-winning squads in those years.

Verdict Real Madrid are the most successful team of recent times and Spain will benefit from being represented by Isco, Marco Asensio and Sergio Ramos. Belgium’s squad, meanwhile, do not have many players who have won something recently.

Managerial experience and pedigree

It is very rare for an inexperienced manager to succeed at the World Cup. Each of the past six World Cup-winning managers have had at least 20 years’ experience. Franz Beckenbauer, West Germany coach in 1990, is the most recent winner to have had fewer than that, having been a manager for just six years, but he had a glittering playing career. He is one of only four managers to win a World Cup since 1950 with less than 10 years’ experience.

When it comes to the age of a successful manager, 10 of the past 17 to triumph at a World Cup, including each of the past six, have been in their 50s. The oldest since 1950 was 69-year-old Helmut Schon in 1974, the youngest 39-year-old Mario Zagallo, of Brazil, in 1970.

Verdict Argentina’s 58-year-old manager Jorge Sampaoli fits the mould, having led Chile to Copa America glory and earned plenty of honours at club level. Brazil’s Tite, aged 56 and with 26 years’ experience to his name, also seems like he could be a potential winner.

Bookies’ expectations

There has never been a World Cup upset like Greece’s 150-1 triumph at Euro 2004. Where historical odds are available (the past eight World Cups), Italy in 2006 were the biggest outsiders to win the competition, at 10-1. Every other winner had odds of 7-1 or shorter. Runners-up can have slightly longer odds, including Germany at 20-1 in 2002, but in all but two of the finals – 1998 and 2014 – the favourite has come out victorious.

Verdict Brazil, Germany, Spain, France and Argentina are the only countries with odds shorter than 10/1 and, if history repeats itself, are the only teams in with a chance of winning the World Cup.

So who is going to win?

Leicester in 2016 may have shown the bookies are not always right, but it seems safe to write off the 21 teams with odds of 50-1 or longer.

Russia, Belgium and Croatia have never won a major trophy, while Uruguay’s ageing squad (they have 10 players over 30 years old) could struggle with the demands of tournament football – also a problem for Brazil, Argentina and Portugal.

England simply do not have the experience in their squad, while Germany have to deal with the expectations of being world No 1. Spain’s manager Julen Lopetegui has only 13 years’ experience and has only won competitions at youth level.

All of which leaves France – well-priced at 6-1 to win, with a decorated (almost 50-year-old) manager in Didier Deschamps, a squad with an average age of 25.6, an experienced core with five players boasting 50-plus caps and plenty of recent trophies.

So if you are backing by the data, the answer is clear: Allez les Bleus.