Time is running out for the EU and UK
The Brexit deal deadline is even closer than it looks. Subtracting all of Brussels’s holidays, there are just six weeks of negotiating left before the final October summit and, astonishingly, the British Government still hasn’t said what it wants. Perhaps this is brinkmanship. Perhaps Theresa May is starving EU leaders of time so that they feel obliged to cave in to whatever she eventually demands. Perhaps the Prime Minister is trying to edge her own Cabinet towards a softer Brexit, which it will debate at next Friday’s meeting at Chequers. Whatever her thinking, it would be easier to believe she has a card up her sleeve had she not hitherto offered one concession after another.
In negotiations, one never gets what one does not ask for. Mrs May needs to decide what she wants and demand it.
Why assume that Britain cannot win? Right now, Europe looks weak and divided. This week’s summit in Brussels was dominated by migration, which tests the very viability of the EU project. Put crudely, Germany wants fewer migrants, Italy wants to share its migrants and Hungary wants no migrants. Angela Merkel turned up desperate for a deal and, in an interesting twist, the Italians took charge of the summit with a display of stubbornness from which Mrs May could learn. Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte vetoed agreement on anything else on the agenda until the Europeans had moved towards his 10-point immigration plan. Ten hours later, just before dawn, a deal appeared to have been struck that promises to establish closed, secure facilities in which to process migrants arriving in the EU and to force boats that collect migrants at sea to respect the law. Mr Conte claimed victories despite representing a government even more philosophically divided than Mrs May’s: think what a cabinet would look like if it contained both Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn and you have Italy.
Of course there are differences between the migration crisis and Brexit: Italy was debating among fellow member states who sense they have an equal investment in finding a solution. Brexit is seen as the UK’S problem – and all the emphasis in the talks has been upon Britain coming up with solutions. The search for fixes is hampered by vetoes emanating from both sides. For instance, the EU welcomes Northern Ireland staying in the Customs Union alone (rightly ruled out by Britain) but it does not accept a backstop with Britain staying in the Customs Union as a temporary solution (something most Leavers dislike, too).
Brussels’s concerns about market arrangements reflect the mood among European businesses, which fear that a no-deal scenario, yes, will create chaos for all in the short term but will also in the long term trigger a spree of deregulation and tax-cutting in Britain that gives it a clear advantage. Time is running out, said Donald Tusk yesterday, “this is the last call [for Britain] to lay the cards on the table.” But time is also running out for the EU – not just in terms of Brexit but, when it comes to the continent-wide issues of budget, democracy and mass migration.
That’s why the Tory manifesto declared that “no deal is better than a bad deal”: it was not only a statement of common sense but, especially as things go down to the wire, a rational negotiating position. That’s why it is so tragic that the Tories haven’t properly prepared for one.
The Cabinet meeting on Friday needs to thrash out a list of demands that meet the expectations of Leave voters during the referendum (controlled immigration, full return of sovereignty, out of the Single Market etc) and which gives the Prime Minister a strong hand to play in Brussels. Once the position is agreed, the UK Government should stick to it. For too long, the EU has been allowed to set terms and Britain has, with the very best will in the world, made the generous moves on matters such as citizenship and defence. Our trump card is the strength of Britain’s economy, as demonstrated by a £20 billion deal to build ships for the Australians. Our future lies far beyond the protectionist anachronism of the EU. The EU knows it and is terrified.