PM wins but has lost the trust of both sides

Downing Street had long seen the vote on membership of a customs union with the EU after Brexit as the biggest threat to Theresa May’s premiership. The Government had delayed bringing the Trade Bill back to the Commons to obviate the threat of defeat, but was eventually left with no option but to put it before Parliament. And for a while yesterday it looked like Mrs May must lose, especially when an amendment tabled by Tory Remainers to remain part of the EU regulatory framework for medicines was successful.

But to have lost on the totemic issue of a customs union, after so emphatically rejecting it, would have been fatal to the Prime Minister. All the stops were pulled out to avoid it. Tories were told that a motion of confidence would follow, risking the prospect of a general election and a Labour government. Although it is hard to see the Government losing such a vote, it stopped the revolt spreading beyond the dozen well-known Mutineers and the Government won the day, with the added help of several pro-brexit Labour MPS.

For the time being, then, Mrs May’s Chequers démarche remains just about intact, despite appearing to alienate the two warring factions in her party – the Brexiteers who want a clean break with the EU and the Remainers who seek to remain as close as possible. Last night, the latter were seen off, yet they are actually supportive of Chequers. It is the former who are most unhappy with the Government’s developing policy, and remain so.

The Prime Minister appears to have averted an immediate threat to her leadership and will make it to the recess next week without being challenged or defeated. The price in party unity and morale has been a heavy one, with recriminations and acrimony now embedded. Mrs May has managed to lose the trust of both sides and may yet face further difficulties in the Commons if Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, makes a resignation speech. Last night it was unclear if he would avail himself of the opportunity.

However, Mrs May now has some breathing space to see if she and her new Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, can make progress with the EU on the basis of the Chequers agreement. Any attempts by Brussels to extract further concessions will make her position precarious once more, but she has shown a resilience that continues to surprise. For how much longer is anyone’s guess.