No 10’s secret Brexit back-up plan could rescue the Conservatives yet

By raising the risk of no deal, Leavers now see the Chequers mess as a trap laid for Michel Barnier

‘For two years, we have done our utmost to negotiate in good faith with the European Union. As Prime Minister I have moved as far towards its demands as I could; perhaps too far. We offered to obey an EU rulebook on goods and food, over which we would have no control. We offered £40 billion in membership fees for a club of which we would no longer be a member. At each stage, it was deemed not enough. Now, with just six months to go, we are being given only two options: surrender, or instead have confidence in Britain’s ability to thrive under world trade rules. Mr Speaker, I have that confidence. And I believe today’s vote will show that this House has it too.”

The above speech is a fantasy, but it’s one that several Brexiteers are indulging in. After the shock of Chequers, they are beginning to see the advantages of the mess they find themselves in. If the EU demands still more concessions – as is highly likely – the Prime Minister would be stuck. If she gives anything more away, her party will depose her. If the EU over-reaches then her only viable option may be to declare that she’s withdrawing from talks and pursuing a clean Brexit – the one she originally promised to voters. There would be high drama and frayed nerves, certainly more traffic jams in Kent. But it could save her leadership and, perhaps, her party.

Mrs May said last weekend that it was her Brexit or no Brexit, but this was not quite true. She very much wants her Chequers plan to be accepted, seeing as it is her personal solution. She will seek to sell it all summer. But if it is rejected, either by Parliament or by Brussels, then a third option is being prepared: a no-deal Brexit.

There is no majority in Parliament for this now, but No 10 believes this could change if Mrs May’s latest offer is rejected out of hand by Brussels in the autumn. “There could be mass indignation in Parliament,” says a source close to the Prime Minister, “and it might tip the balance.” And this is where the Brexiteers see their opportunity.

A fortnight ago, Tory Brexiteers saw the Chequers agreement as abject capitulation. Now, they see it as a trap laid for Michel Barnier. All that’s needed is for him to take the bait, reject the plan, demand something outrageous and: bingo! Mrs May will have been given a casus belli.

“Chequers is the most cherrypicking deal imaginable,” says one Cabinet member. “We’re asking for free movement of goods, but not people. Frictionless trade but not the payments.” Mr Barnier might demand more on immigration, welfare for EU citizens, or more money for Brussels. The civil service is already preparing to roll over on the last one: I understand that the Foreign Office has estimated that Britain will end up paying about half of the current membership fee in perpetuity.

Every negotiator ought to leave some wiggle room. Mrs May now has none. If anything, she has already gone too far and needs to make her Chequers plan less generous to stand a chance of it getting through Parliament. No 10 is even considering a plan to do this: if Mr Barnier rejects her offer, she then returns to him with a less generous one. Then she would publish the Whitehall proposals for a no-deal Brexit, and make a few contingency plans: Britain could make it easier by waving all traffic through from the European Union, for example, and decline to collect any extra tariffs. With the exception, perhaps, of German carmakers.

Then comes the final part of the plan: a last-minute offer to Brussels. A law firm, Linklaters, has been commissioned to identify the best parts of free-trade deals offered by the EU to Canada, South Korea and Switzerland. Mrs May would then use this to say that she would accept something similar, even at this late stage. “We would not be asking for anything that they haven’t offered to other people,” says one Cabinet minister. “It’s steel-nerves time. They’d be mad not to accept. But they might not, so we’d have to be sure we were ready to go through with the world trade alternative.”

Already, Brexiteers are starting to use the phrase “world trade” instead of the gloomier “no-deal Brexit”. World Trade Organisation rules govern Britain’s relations with many countries – the United States included – but come with so many layers of bureaucracy that many Brexiteers (like Michael Gove) think there is no way of getting this system ready within a year. Boris Johnson thinks otherwise, and is now free to say as much.

If Brexit can be so simple, why didn’t Mrs May pursue this plan in the first place? She’d answer in two words: Northern Ireland. “She’s obsessed with it,” says one former Cabinet member. “She’d use it as a veto on anything creative.”

The consensus, among Tory Brexiteers, is that the EU’S decision to be difficult about Northern Ireland was a masterstroke on its part because it tricked Mrs May into thinking that the only way of avoiding borders was to obey EU rules on goods and foods. Ever since, Brexiteers have been walking down what one calls a “Via Dolorosa of disappointment”.

The no-deal Brexiteers regard Ireland’s objections to the border issues as spurious. Leo Varadkar, the Taoiseach, has a weakness for crying wolf: his latest idea is that British aircraft would be banned from flying over Irish airspace. A Northern Ireland solution may well be doable, but could it be agreed in a matter of months? A good many Brexiteers believe so.

All told, the Tory Brexiteers are cheering up. Some have rescinded their demands that Mrs May resign, saying that they over-reacted to Chequers. The real reason is that they now plan to finish her off – or threaten to – if she even considers granting more concessions to Mr Barnier. So there is a summer truce. Tory backbenchers are still ready with the blowtorch and pliers, but now think that October will be a far better time for threatening to use them. They believe that the sense of urgency might unite the party and, perhaps, the country.

Unthinkable? Maybe, but we are living in an era where once-unthinkable political events are happening all the time. A successful Brexit may yet be one of them.