Holes in the border

Theresa May is in Northern Ireland today, visiting the border and talking with local politicians, and she is to be wished the very best of luck. Brexit, says the EU, will create a hard border, which it insists is unacceptable and which the UK Government obligingly ruled out last December. So what is the alternative? A customs border down the Irish Sea? That would be anathema to the DUP, which keeps the Tories in power and will accept no division of the UK. The EU’S proposal of “de-dramatising” an Irish Sea border is naive: the DUP won’t budge an inch.

But does the EU’S new tone suggest Brussels is softening? Watching Mrs May struggle to stay on top of Commons revolts this week, the Eurocrats must realise that they either work with whatever compromise emerges from Westminster or it’s “no deal”. If the latter happens, the sky is likely to stay up. Leo Varadkar, the Irish Taoiseach, says he has assurances from the EU that, in the event of a no-deal “doomsday scenario”, Brussels would not require Dublin to place “physical infrastructure and customs checks on the Border”.

If the EU won’t place checks and Ireland won’t either – and Britain certainly won’t – why is the border such a big issue? Because the EU, in alliance with Mr Varadkar, has manipulated it during talks to squeeze concessions from Britain. The real prize is convincing the UK to fold and stay entirely within the customs union. Mrs May thus has to stand firm. Mr Varadkar, meanwhile, needs to think about his own country’s future. If Brussels can try to bring the UK in line, even as it leaves the EU, what makes him think it won’t someday demand Ireland shows economic “solidarity” with the Continent – and hike its competitive tax rates?