We must get ready for a no-deal exit
Depending on which side of the Brexit divide you stand, the Government is either being ridiculous in blaming the EU for the looming crisis in the negotiations or voicing perfectly legitimate grievances. In recent weeks, Ministers have been playing up the prospect of a no-deal withdrawal even though they have failed visibly to make the necessary preparations for such an outcome. The latest Jeremiah is Liam Fox, the Trade Secretary, who thinks it is odds-on that the UK will leave without a deal. This would be a massive failure on the Government’s part since it is its policy to get an agreement.
But the developing narrative now is that if it happens it is not our fault but the EU’S. Dr Fox said the “intransigence” of Brussels negotiators was making progress difficult. This is why Ministers, including Theresa May, have been touring European capitals in an attempt to drive a wedge between the Commission and political leaders by reminding the latter of their national interests.
This is unlikely to work. The Government has misjudged the willingness of EU governments to inflict harm on themselves, their businesses and their people in pursuit of unity. They were warned that this would happen early on. Yannis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, said the UK should avoid negotiations because he had seen at first hand how mendacious and underhand the Commission’s tactics were.
From the beginning, the Commission has relied upon an inflexible mandate from the other 27 member states that has left the UK unable to focus on its future relationships until Brussels was satisfied on the issues of money, citizenship and Ireland. This sequencing has been at the root of the negotiating problems and is, arguably, against the spirit and even letter of EU law.
Dr Fox was inevitably denounced by Remainers for suggesting the EU might be to blame. But there is some justification in what he says. Article 50 stipulates that “the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with [the withdrawing] State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.” The way the EU has behaved has not conformed to these requirements. The Government should have seen it coming before triggering Article 50 or prepared accordingly. If Dr Fox means what he says, then it must do so now.