Heatwaves will continue for four years, scientists predict

BRITAIN should be braced for four years of heatwaves, scientists who correctly predicted this year’s scorching summer have said.

Researchers found that both average ground and sea surface temperatures around the UK and the rest of the world could be abnormally high between 2018 and 2022.

The biggest factor driving the forecast was an increased likelihood of “extreme warm events”, they said.

The research was carried out before the summer heatwaves that sent temperatures in the UK and other parts of the world soaring this year.

However, the unusually hot weather was correctly predicted by the scientists, who said 2018 had a “high probability of having a warm anomaly” relative to the general effects of global warming. Temperatures almost broke records this summer, regularly breaching more than 95F (35C).

Their paper, reported in the journal Nature Communications, was received for publication in January.

The new technique, called Procast (Probabilistic forecast), seeks to rationalise the inherently chaotic behaviour of systems such as the Earth’s climate.

A retrospective test of the method accurately predicted the global warming pause, or “hiatus”, between 1998 and 2013.

The scientists, led by Dr Florian Sevellec, from the University of Brest in France, wrote: “For 2018-2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period … with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures.”