There is nowhere for Syria’s refugees to run to
Syria’s ghastly civil war grinds on. We appear now, however, to be nearing the rebels’ last stand. Bashar al-assad’s troops are closing in on Idlib. This is the remaining stronghold of anti-regime forces in the country’s western half. If Mr Assad’s forces take it, he will have reconquered all of the country’s most significant population centres.
Populous is the word for Idlib, unfortunately. There are anywhere from 2.5 to 3.3 million people there, 1.2 million of whom are thought to be refugees displaced from elsewhere in Syria. Whenever Assad has retaken a rebel town, its fighters and residents have often fled to Idlib.
According to Charles Lister, a fellow at the Middle East Institute, the rebel groups leading the resistance are now a hodgepodge of Islamists (from al-qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood affiliates to Isil) and some anti-government moderates, supported by a ring of Turkish military installations. Turkey, lest we forget, is a Nato ally, though its incursion into Syria has been heavily criticised by Europe and the US.
The Syrian government looks increasingly likely to mount a full-scale effort to retake Idlib. There are two unknowns. The first is whether or not Russia will back this offensive to the degree that it has backed. Assad so far. That stems in part from the second unknown: what Turkey would do in response. After years of either propping up or killing one another’s proxy forces in various parts of the country, the foreign powers meddling in Syria are at risk of finding themselves face to face. It is not clear that they want to rush into a confrontation.
Meanwhile, the people trapped inside the rebel zone are waiting, cut off from most forms of aid. All of the states bordering Syria have closed themselves off as escape routes – and who can blame them? Turkey is hosting 3.5 million refugees, Lebanon more than 2 million and Jordan about 1.3 million. It is not clear what the knock-on effect of over a million more would be. Either the Middle East is about to see another huge refugee wave, or the world is about to witness a massacre of horrendous scale.
Western powers have pretty much given up any role in influencing the outcome of the war. If there is a case for getting involved now, though, it might be that Washington could help to persuade Moscow not to perpetuate or preside over a bloodbath. If Donald Trump’s courting of Vladimir Putin has any merit, it ought to be that he can now deploy some of his famous deal-making prowess.