Britain need not be afraid of a no-deal Brexit
We remain committed to reaching agreement with the EU but we are prepared for any eventuality
Tomorrow, I look forward to continuing negotiations with Michel Barnier. We want a good deal that benefits the UK and EU. It remains our overriding priority, but it will require our EU friends to match the ambition and pragmatism we have demonstrated. If that doesn’t happen, regrettable and unlikely as it may be, the UK will manage the challenges of “no deal” so that we make a success of Brexit.
Today, the Cabinet will review the Government’s no-deal contingency plans, after two years of work. The legislative foundations are already being laid to ensure a smooth legal transition. Extra staff have been hired across Whitehall and agencies such as the UK Border Force. Our institutions are getting ready, including the Competition and Markets Authority, which will take on state-aid functions. We are also making sure we are in the best position to continue key international agreements linked to EU membership. And, at his last Budget, Philip Hammond committed a further £3 billion for preparations.
In August, we published 25 Technical Notices, signposting businesses to relevant customs procedures, reassuring workers that their rights will remain protected and committing to continuing streams of EU research funding for UK organisations. Today, the Government will publish the second batch of 28 Technical Notices, which range from protecting consumers from mobile phone roaming charges to upholding environmental standards.
No one should pretend that no deal would be straightforward. There would be risks and some short-term disruption. Extra checks at the EU border would bring delays for businesses. We can mitigate by taking a “continuity” approach, recognising certain Eu-approved goods for import into the UK. But, in a no-deal scenario, we can’t control the EU’S response to UK goods going the other way.
If the EU insists on regulatory approvals and imposes its external tariff on UK goods, we will be treated like any other non-eu country, at least for a period. It is true that we could trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms, but that is inferior to our current free trade arrangements. If WTO rules were that great, few Brexiteers – myself included – would be so excited by the opportunities of forging new free trade deals, from the US to Asia.
Equally, we shouldn’t give succour to those scaremongering for political ends. It’s nonsense to claim that UK supermarkets would run out of food. Our diverse sources of food – 50 per cent home-grown, 20 per cent imported from non-eu countries – provide us with a high degree of food security, and EU farmers will still want to sell to the UK. Nor should our advice to pharmaceutical firms, to stockpile six weeks of additional medicine supplies, scare people. These firms already hold 12 weeks of supplies for more than 200 medicines, as a buffer. Contingency planning for short-term disruptions to supply is not new.
Even in the aftermath of no deal, the UK would seek to retain a neighbourly approach. The Government would move to secure the position of EU nationals in the UK, because we hugely value their contribution. We would press the EU and member states to do the same for UK ex-pats. And we would look to collaborate with the EU and member states to prevent unnecessary disruption to UK and EU businesses and citizens. It would be incumbent on all sides to put people before politics.
As WTO Director General Roberto Azevedo recently said, leaving the EU with no deal would not be “a walk in the park”, but it would “not be the end of the world” either. There would be some countervailing opportunities. We could negotiate and bring into force new free-trade deals straight away. We would see the immediate return of full legislative and regulatory control – including over immigration. And the Government would not pay the terms of the financial settlement, as agreed with the EU as part of the Withdrawal Agreement. There’s no deal without the whole deal.
These common-sense plans are a necessity, not something we want to have to implement. Our ambition for a special and deep partnership with our EU friends remains undimmed. If the EU matches our ambition and pragmatism a deal is within reach. In any event, we stand resolute – ready to rise to the challenge of Brexit, and seize the opportunities that lie ahead.
Dominic Raab MP is Brexit Secretary