Deal delivers an invisible border for N Ireland
For the past three days, United Kingdom and European Union negotiators have been locked in the Berlaymont headquarters of the European Commission thrashing out a deal on the Irish “backstop” – and it now appears as if the outlines of a accord might have been reached.
A senior EU source said only that there had been “good progress” in the talks, but it remained to be seen whether both the Cabinet and the heads of the 27 EU member states would find the plan acceptable.
Full details have yet to emerge but, according to officials on both sides involved in the process, the deal is designed to deliver an “invisible” border in Northern Ireland, even if trade negotiations break down after Brexit. Without checks on the Irish land border, the EU has been demanding that Prime Minister Theresa May agree to checks for customs and compliance with EU regulations in the Irish Sea – effectively creating a commercial border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Mrs May has repeatedly ruled this “unacceptable” and instead has proposed a temporary “all-uk” customs arrangement which, according to a technical note released on June 7, would mean the UK continues to levy the EU’S “common external tariff ” on goods. Effectively, the offer – which The Daily Telegraph understands was formally tabled this week – will leave the UK in a “temporary” customs union with the EU. Without this, UK sources were clear there could be no deal.
While in this customs union, the British have hoped to reserve the right to negotiate trade deals on services. It is unclear if this request has survived this week’s negotiation.
The June 7 technical paper also said this customs arrangement for the backstop would be “time-limited” and, if ever used, would be replaced by the final UK-EU trading arrangements when they came into force.
The paper did not set a firm date for this to happen, merely noting that the UK Government “expects” the future arrangement “to be in place by the end of December 2021 at the latest”. This fudge nearly caused the resignation of the then Brexit secretary, David Davis.
Still, even though the EU has insisted that any backstop must be “all-weather” and “permanent”, British negotiators were still hoping to win some concessions that would “timelimit” the backstop more clearly.
One negotiations source said any time limits would be “events-based”, suggesting that no hard time limit will be placed on the backstop.
This is likely to be defused by the offer of a “temporary” customs arrangement that can kick in after the end of the transition period in December 2020 and act as a “bridge” to the future, according to senior sources.
Brexiteers fear that such a “temporary” customs union will become never-ending, after the EU ruled both of Mrs May’s suggestions for the future relationship impractical and impossible to deliver.
Logically, if the UK continues to insist on no customs border in the Irish Sea, and Mrs May’s “dual tariff ” and “max fac” solutions for the border are both defunct, then only a customs union can deliver an “all-uk” solution.
The backstop also needed to address the question of “regulatory compliance” across the border, which accounts for about 70per cent of border checks.
To minimise these at the border, The Telegraph understands that the backstop will leave Northern Ireland in the EU’S single market for goods regulations, and that these “distinct arrangements” would be agreed by Northern Ireland’s assembly and executive. Arlene Foster, the leader of the DUP, which props up Mrs May’s minority government in Westminster, has in recent days been vocally opposed to any deal that would create fresh regulatory checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.