Once a respectable reformer, MBS may have finally pushed it too far
Exactly a year ago, Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, was on top of the world. Onstage at the first “Davos in the Desert” investment summit in Riyadh, he was happily discussing his plans for a £385 billion new Saudi mega city.
Western politicians and business leaders flocked to hear the young prince describe his vision of a reformed Saudi economy and a gentler society, freed from the grip of hardline clerics.
Today, Crown Prince Mohammed is at the centre of an international storm over allegations that he ordered the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. The same global elites who raced to Riyadh last year are now nowhere to be seen.
The fall from international favour may be a sign that the 33-year-old heir to the throne, who went rapidly from an unknown royal to one of the Middle East’s most powerful men, has finally gone too far.
Widely known by his initials “MBS”, Crown Prince Mohammed is one of the younger sons of King Salman and a favourite among his 13 children.
He was appointed defence minister at 29 but his authority has spread to all corners of Saudi government, earning him the nickname “Mr Everything”. His 82-year-old father is declining mentally and handed him broad powers over the economy and foreign policy.
The king moved dramatically to shift the direction of Saudi Arabia’s future last year by sacking the serving crown prince, his 58-year-old nephew, and giving the title to MBS.
Since then, Crown Prince Mohammed has moved with unbridled aggression at home and abroad, smashing what had been a slowmoving Saudi governing system based on consensus.
He pushed through some social reforms such as allowing women to drive, but has done little to ease guardianship laws which restrict the rights of female Saudi citizens.
He announced an “anti-corruption” drive in which police arrested many fellow princes and some leading businessmen.
The move was widely seen as an effort to consolidate power and crush rivals. It also left him open to accusations of hypocrisy given his own rumoured lavish spending. Saudi Arabia has continued its bombing campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Human rights groups criticised the kingdom for the level of civilian casualties and for a devastating blockade that has fuelled famine.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s president, made no mention of the crown prince in a speech yesterday but did praise the sincerity of King Salman. His comments may have been designed to drive a wedge between the father and son.
Through all of this, Crown Prince Mohammed has retained the support of Donald Trump and kept a close relationship with Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. His ties to the White House have insulated him from international opponents.
A key question of the Khashoggi crisis is whether the White House will rethink the trust it has put in a man it sees as a dynamic reformer, a reliable opponent of Iran, and a potential linchpin of a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians.
Even if the White House stands by him, his international reputation has been tarnished and he is unlikely to receive fresh invitations in Hollywood and Silicon Valley. Expect the crown prince to keep a low profile for the time being as he licks his wounds and reflect on the Western leaders who have not stood by him.