Brexit forecasts
SIR – A number of us wrote to the Chancellor on October 14, requesting publication in full of the Government’s Brexit model. Subsequently, Open Europe published forecasts which, like work from Economists for Free Trade, are more positive than the Treasury analysis.
These three forecasts provide a case study in why it is so important to have an open debate on the Government’s methods and assumptions in good time, well before any parliamentary vote on Brexit. As the Chancellor has acknowledged, the critical factor explaining differences in such forecasts is the underlying assumptions.
The analysis from Open Europe is known to rely on the standard Global Trade Analysis Project model, and Economists for Free Trade on a similar Computable General Equilibrium model. The Government is using a modified GTAP model. We are therefore also concerned to understand how any modifications to GTAP have affected results.
Following MP Sheryll Murray’s opening question at Prime Minister’s Questions on October 17, we are again calling on the Chancellor to publish immediately, in full detail, the cross-whitehall Brexit analysis, and the underlying models and assumptions, so that experts from all sides can inform public debate.
Steve Baker MP
Jacob Rees-mogg MP
Sir Bill Cash MP
Iain Duncan Smith MP
Zac Goldsmith MP and 30 others; see telegraph.co.uk
SIR – The doom-mongers are telling us that there is no time left to prepare properly for a “no-deal” Brexit.
Theresa May’s mantra at the start of her tenure was: “No deal is better than a bad deal.” But it now seems clear that she has made no provisions to cater for the former situation.
This almost exactly mirrors David Cameron’s lack of preparation for a Leave vote in the referendum. How did we end up with two such incompetent prime ministers? Keith Macnamara
Downton, Wiltshire
SIR – Nick St Aubyn (Letters, October 24) may be right about a change of leadership before Christmas, but it must be remembered that the last leadership change was arranged by Conservative MPS (majority: Remain) and resulted in a Remain-supporting leader who neither understood nor believed in the real and exciting possibilities of Brexit.
The party membership (majority: Leave) had to accept the new leader. I hope Conservative MPS will be cautious of bypassing party members in that way again, especially so soon. Susie Taylor
Old Malton, North Yorkshire