How can the PM win?

So many weeks have begun with the expectations of a Brexit meltdown that predicting a climacteric is unwise. Theresa May has become adept at putting off decisions if they are likely to bring matters to a head and risk the stability of her Government.

But the Prime Minister’s options are narrowing rapidly as the timetable for leaving the EU tightens. It had been proposed to put the final agreement to the Cabinet either today or tomorrow and to publish the divorce terms together with a political declaration setting out the basis for a future relationship. But with the EU still unwilling to concede an acceptable form of words on the Irish border “backstop” that Mrs May needs in order to secure the support of her ministers, this must be in doubt.

Unless progress is made this week, it becomes almost impossible to arrange a summit before the end of the month at which the deal can be signed off. There is an EU summit in December but that has been earmarked for a discussion on the Italian economy and the threat it poses to the euro. European leaders will be reluctant to devote even more of their time to Brexit.

This deepening mess has encouraged those who want to undo the result of the referendum to believe Brexit may be reversed. The resignation of Jo Johnson as a transport minister has further demonstrated the almost insurmountable difficulties that Mrs May faces to get her plan through parliament. Mr Johnson, unlike his brother Boris, is a Remainer. Mrs May has managed to galvanise both pro- and anti-brexit forces against her.

Senior ministers still believe the dynamics will change when the deal is published and the accompanying political declaration can be seen to allow the UK to develop a Canada-style trade agreement, but such hopes look forlorn. Even the best scenario in Whitehall is for the narrowest of wins when the deal is to put the Commons, and that would require all Tories to vote for it with the DUP, assuming the Opposition will vote against.

Since dozens of Conservative MPS and the DUP have said they will not vote for the agreement, it is hard to see how Mrs May can now win. In which case is there any point in continuing to talk to the EU about a deal she cannot get through Parliament? Perhaps if she withdrew the money on offer the Brussels negotiators may think again about softening their position on the Irish backstop. After all, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed – and that includes the £39bn the EU is expecting to plug its finances.