Eurosceptics agree at last: ‘Brexit has been bungled’
IT WAS a speech that left Tory MPS bewildered as they sipped champagne at an event that was supposed to celebrate a return to Thatcherite thinking.
As Maurice Saatchi took to the stage at the Centre for Policy Studies event at Carlton House Terrace a fortnight ago, the party faithful could only stare into their glasses as their former chairman declared that Theresa May would return to Downing Street “a hero” on March 30 next year.
He declared: “The Prime Minister will say, ‘I have delivered the will of the British people, I now await your further instructions’. And as she turns to go back into the famous door, her voice will be drowned out by the crowds outside the gates of No10 who will be singing, ‘For she’s a jolly good fellow’.”
Many would be forgiven for thinking that the advertising supremo had made the classic mistake of believing his own blurb. Indeed, for many in the room, Saatchi’s famous slogan had been turned on its head and it was now the Conservatives who weren’t working – not least under Theresa May’s beleaguered yet battle-hardened leadership.
Rewind 21 months and the party had been united in hopeful expectation that Mrs May’s Lancaster House speech, setting out the Government’s “plan for Britain” would deliver the Brexit that 17.4million people voted for.
As the PM herself put it: “Not partial membership of the European Union, associate membership of the European Union, or anything that leaves us halfin, half-out.”
How shallow those words now seem to many Tories on both sides of the ideological divide who appear united not only in their dislike of a deal that proposes to do exactly the opposite, but also in regard to who is to blame for the Hobson’s Choice they now face.
While Cabinet ministers may be keeping their counsel with a view to their own political survival, the atmosphere in the Commons tea room is a mixture of “anger and gloom”, according to a broad spectrum of Tory MPS who spoke to The Daily Telegraph. One minister told colleagues: “I feel clinically depressed.” A prominent backbencher added: “There’s a degree of fed-up-to-the-back-teethness about it. All hope has been lost.” Another MP was more unequivocal: “The view from everybody is the feeling that Brexit has been bungled and they all blame her.”
Speak to the Eurosceptics in the party and they remain convinced Mrs May will not get the deal through the Commons. There are also plenty of Remainers who believe the parliamentary arithmetic is stacked against her. And then there are those who want her out, regardless. There is certainly a hardcore group of around 15 “ultra” Eurosceptic Tories who are understood to have already submitted letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, the 1922 Committee chairman.
Led by Andrea Jenkyns, who has long claimed Sir Graham has “at least 35 letters”, the group of Right-wingers includes Peter Bone, Philip Davies, Andrew RT Davies, Nadine Dorries and Philip Hollobone. They are certain to vote against the deal, but as Jacob Reesmogg, the European Research Group (ERG) chairman, has told colleagues: “There are 40 members who are more hardline than I am”.
He warned yesterday that the probrexit ERG “is not trying to force the pace on this”. He added: “There is the risk of an accident, a lot of people feel very let down by the reports of the settlement and, without any organisation, might be writing letters.”
Having previously backed the PM in a bid not only to see the EU Withdrawal Bill through parliament but to see Brexit itself, it appears patience is now wearing thin among Brexit “big beasts”. As one senior MP put it: “More letters have been going in – not from very angry people, but very patient people.
“It’s all very well focusing on whether there is going to be any Cabinet resignations, but change happens from the bottom, not the top. The Cabinet isn’t going to lead the charge – it’s just going to crystallise the thinking.”
Another said: “Is this the [Ted] Heath moment where everyone decides enough is enough? Possibly, but the problem is, there is no Margaret Thatcher, there’s just a lot of ambitious MPS waiting to put their hats in the ring.”
Brexiters admit that their “wait and see” strategy has been far from perfect, but there is consensus that if the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson were not enough to stop Mrs May in her tracks, then nothing is.
As one senior ERG figure told The Telegraph: “There was a lot of talk about unseating Mrs May several weeks ago, but she’d have won a no-confidence vote which would only have succeeded in giving her the mandate she needed to push her Brexit deal through.”
And it is far from a dead certainty that she will be defeated now. As one former Downing Street adviser pointed out: “The DUP would die in a ditch over the Union. Brexit and the single market stuff is far less important to them than the Brexiters make out. They may end up voting with the Government to retain their powerful position.”
There is also the generational divide in the Tory party. With their political careers ahead of them, these younger Brexit agnostics are much more uncomfortable with the idea of a “cliff edge” no-deal Brexit than their elders.
Hence suspicions of a “devious” plan at the heart of Downing Street’s strategy. As one impeccably placed source told The Telegraph: “Superficially the numbers are against her, but one should never underestimate the craven self-interest of the average politician and the power of the Government machine. Theresa May may be much more clever than people realise. She may well turn out to be one of the most cunning PMS this country has ever had.”
‘Is this the [Ted] Heath moment, when everyone says enough is enough? Problem is, there is no Margaret Thatcher, just a lot of ambitious MPS’