Mrs May needs our support as she fights the UK’S corner
Ihave long believed that Britain would eventually leave the European Union. From the time we joined the European Community, we have never really been moving in the same direction. As Hans Olaf Henkel, the veteran German MEP, put it: “Britain joined a football club but Brussels decided to play golf.”
The world has changed enormously since the Seventies when we joined the common market. So has our economy. Now the UK, the world’s fifth biggest economy, stands on a much firmer footing. Our public finances are stronger, we are seeing a resurgence in exporting performance (up over 10 per cent in 2017) and recent UN figures show that, in the first six months of 2018, the UK was second only to China in terms of foreign direct investment coming into the country.
Our trade patterns have changed. Exports to the EU which constituted 57 per cent of the total only a decade ago now represent around 44 per cent of the goods and services we sell. Add to this the fact that the IMF predicted that 90 per cent of global growth in the next five years will occur outside Europe, and our dilemma is clear. We have to take a balanced approach to trade – ensuring we have sufficient access to the European market to support jobs and profits, while making sure we can exercise an independent trade policy that enables us to expand into the growing global markets, especially in the Far East and Africa.
It is against this backdrop that our negotiations on our separation from the EU and our future relationship with it, are taking place. The current, political phase was always more likely to be the most difficult as it involves issues of money, citizens’ rights and the Irish border.
This week the Cabinet had a marathon session in which views were expressed respectfully, forcefully and passionately. We were asked to give the Prime Minister the authority to take the draft Withdrawal Agreement to the November European Council as an agreement in principle. It is the issue of the Irish border which has caused the greatest angst, with the Irish government demanding protection against Britain walking away unilaterally, creating a hard border. This is the so-called backstop.
Many in the UK fear the EU wants to keep the UK in a permanent limbo, unable to leave. There are those in Brussels who fear this plan would give Britain access to the customs union with no obligations for free movement or financial contribution. This would certainly produce strong reactions from Norway and Switzerland.
Add to this the fear that Northern Ireland would be able to trade freely with both the rest of the UK and the EU while the Republic would face trade barriers, with the risk of businesses transferring North, and it’s easy to see why different perceptions could result in a rejection of the agreement and result in a no-deal Brexit. Both sides dislike considerable elements of the backstop.
Once we get beyond this we will begin to negotiate a future partnership, including the trade relationship, which will also be crucial to our freedom to negotiate agreements beyond the EU.
All this occurs within the complex dynamics of the UK’S current political position. The people of Britain were given a referendum by Parliament and gave the instruction to leave the EU. The Government, with no majority in either House of Parliament, pledged to deliver it. Labour has engaged in hypocrisy of historical proportions and seeks to thwart Brexit. There is a clear danger many seek to stop Brexit completely. I believe this would be earth shattering, with a loss of faith in the political system that could have dramatic unpredictable consequences.
The Cabinet gave collective agreement to proceed to the next stage of negotiation. Mrs May has handled a difficult situation with enormous patience, great dignity and resilience. I know she will always act in what she believes to be the national interest. She has acknowledged that, like many of us, she has reservations about some of the issues but it is, after all, a negotiation.
She deserves no less than our support to make her case to the EU and bring it back to Parliament for approval.