Transition could last until 2022, Barnier suggests

UK may choose to delay cutting ties with the EU for years, at a cost of billions, Brussels diplomats told

THE Brexit transition period could be extended by another two years – to December 2022, Michel Barnier has told European ambassadors in Brussels.

EU diplomats said the extension, which would leave the UK still tied to the EU six years after the Brexit vote, would be sensible but stressed it would be up to Britain to decide.

One EU diplomat said yesterday: “The UK could theoretically ask for an extension until 2099 but an 80-year extension might upset people a little bit.”

During the transition period, expected to begin after March 29 next year and to end on Dec 31, 2020, Britain will remain part of the EU’S single market and customs union. It will lose all representation in the EU institutions and has agreed to accept all EU law during the transition.

The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, published last week, left the date for a possible extension as “20XX” because British negotiators were unable to give a specific end date, Mr Barnier said. EU and UK negotiators will meet a year into the 18-month transition period to evaluate progress on the free trade agreement that is planned to avoid a hard border in Ireland and decide whether to extend the transition period to prevent the Irish backstop being triggered. The backstop, as setout, would leave the UK in a bare bones customs union.

“Mr Barnier did not say that December 2022 was the absolute limit, the length is up to the British,” the diplomat said. “But another two years makes sense. It is a reasonable and decent length especially as the trade deal will have to be ratified by every national parliament and even some regional parliaments in the EU”.

The EU-27 is united in its insistence that any extension to the transition period will only be granted if agreement is reached on how much Britain would pay for the privilege. The UK is unlikely to be able to claim its rebate because the next EU budget after Brexit is expected to annul them. That means Britain could face a bill of at least £14.5billion a year of extra transition or nearly £30billion for Mr Barnier’s suggested 2022 period.

A second EU diplomat said the transition extension would be legally questionable if it were longer than two years because that would make it hard to argue it was “a bridge” to the future relationship, which is what is required under EU law.

The Daily Telegraph understands France would prefer a shorter transition period. Spain is also understood to be furious that, in its view, the extension to the transition period and the future relationship will apply to Gibraltar without the “Spanish veto” that applies to the Withdrawal Agreement.

“Spain knows they can’t scupper the Withdrawal Agreement so they are going to drag their feet on the political declaration,” an EU source said. “They could limit the parameters to make the final agreement less ambitious”.

The draft political declaration, which will set the parameters of the UK-EU trade negotiations, was published at the same time as the Prime Minister’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. The final declaration, which must be agreed by the UK, will be published on Tuesday, ahead of Sunday’s Brexit summit to sign off the parts of the overall deal.

A UK Government source said the suggested date was the maximum duration for extending the transition period, not the minimum, and would be used to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland if the future trade relationship was not ready by the end of 2020.