Brexit coup will push voters into the arms of Corbyn
Thwarting the referendum will make voting Labour seem a risk-free protest. That would be catastrophic
There is still a chance that democracy will prevail. But if the Government gets its way and Brexit is rendered meaningless as a result of Theresa May’s calamitous deal, or it is halted entirely, which she insists is now the only alternative, there be will just one winner: Jeremy Corbyn.
The Labour leader can’t lose. As a lifelong Eurosceptic, he would privately love to leave the EU, which he sees as constraining his protocommunist fantasies. If, instead, Brexit is thwarted, the political class will be engulfed by a crisis greater even than that following the Suez, Profumo or expenses scandals. The Government would have committed a constitutional monstrosity, shattering the bond of trust that underpins healthy indirect democracies.
The obvious way in which Corbyn would benefit is if the Government collapses, followed by an election. But if it hobbles on, a thwarting of Brexit would give Corbyn an even greater long-term boost by decisively shifting the national mood. To use jargon fashionable in the corporate world, voting for Corbyn – or for any extremist, revolutionary party – would have become “de-risked”. It would feel much less scary to back a politician pledging to tear up the whole economy, and to ignore all the warnings.
Why? Look at what happened last time. Two and a half years ago, the electorate opted for a dramatic rupture with the status quo; yet – assuming that the concerted effort at stopping us from regaining control succeeds – nothing would have changed. The lesson millions would learn is that politics is rigged in favour of the powerful. Voting would have become a sham, a latterday opium for the masses, intended to stupefy them into believing their views are being taken into account, while allowing an out-of-control ruling class to keep doing its own thing.
The corollary to this is terrifying. If the Establishment won’t allow any real change, it must therefore have become “safe” to vote for Corbyn, for Scottish independence or for any number of loony political outfits. Doing so would at least kick out the Tories, voters would think, and may even lead to a few “New Labour” type reforms, but it won’t risk collapsing the economy, Venezuela-style. Such things would not be permitted to happen here – or so the public will believe. And who could blame them?
If the coup against leaving the EU succeeds, voting for Brexit would have been downgraded to a mere “cry for help”, a “protest”, a super-sized “opinion poll”, nothing more. Many will thus assume that a vote for Corbyn would be interpreted in the same way: yes, they would be backing a man who wants to expropriate private property and who has allowed anti-semitism to fester in his party, but so what? Nothing truly bad would be allowed by the great and the good, would it? The public would assume that it had become possible to put two fingers up to the powerful, free of consequences.
Yet the idea that voting for Corbyn is now “safe” is catastrophically deluded, for two reasons.
First, the Establishment’s position vis-à-vis Corbyn is different from its approach to the referendum. Our governing classes, CEOS, civil servants, think-tankers and cultural elites are overwhelmingly opposed to Brexit; but this disparate coalition would immediately splinter when it came to a hard-left government. Not all of its members would directly stand to lose out from all of Labour’s policies, and some would actually support them.
The CBI is a case in point: in what is merely the latest in a very long list of terrible misjudgments, it is sounding more conciliatory towards Labour than it is towards Brexit. Corbyn and his allies understand this, which is why they would divide and conquer, picking off one establishment subgroup after another, rather than taking them all on at the same time.
Business leaders would hate 60 or 70 per cent tax rates, and would loathe Labour’s attack on private schools – but the cultural elites, senior civil servants and Left-wing academics, who earn much less and generally rely on the state for their children’s schooling these days, would cheer. Their joy wouldn’t last long: once the private schools were gone, Labour would turn on the grammars and faith schools. By then it would be too late.
The anti-brexit coalition is far from monolithic. The highest earners may be able to weather Corbyn’s wealth tax; but less well-paid, asset-rich members of the metropolitan Left would be hammered. Ditto when it came to pulling out of Nato and ditching Trident: the City would embrace the financial savings.
The military would be furious, but isolated. The hard-left would easily divide, outwit and outmanoeuvre complacent liberals too used to automatically having their own way.
Secondly, the Establishment has been lucky when it comes to Brexit. The Eurosceptics only win when they are run professionally, as they were by Vote Leave during the referendum and Business for Sterling during the euro debate. When the professionals leave the scene, chaos ensues. Immediately after their greatest of victories, Vote Leave was wound down, Michael Gove destroyed Boris Johnson, and the Remainers seized control, eventually gaining total power after the general election.
Since then, the Brexiteers have proved amateurish, incapable of sound political judgment and unable to campaign for a clear alternative. Many are evidently looking at any excuse to surrender, while yet others would do anything to stay in Cabinet.
It would be different under Corbyn: the hard-left is brilliant at organisation, at mobilising and fighting and winning. In addition to Lenin, Mao and Stalin, the hard-left has read and studied
A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin, while cutting its teeth on union meetings and student politics. They are prepared for everything. The Establishment would face a formidable, ideologically committed, almost psychopathic enemy and would be routed. Corbyn would be in power, not just in office. He would implement many of his policies, inflicting irreparable damage. His victory would be as “risky” as ever.
The message to the Tories is simple: if you stop Brexit, if you betray the voters’ trust, you will end up with Corbyn. The country will be wrecked, and you will be to blame. Tory MPS, it’s now up to you.