If history repeats itself, only the Tories will come out best
SITTING in County Hall, on the opposite bank of the River Thames from Westminster, the seven newlyindependent MPS tried hard to ignore the elephant in the room, but to no avail.
Labour has split before and, in doing so, helped ensure 18 years of unbroken Conservative government. How closely this group of former Labour MPS comes to resemble the Social Democratic Party could have huge ramifications for British politics. When the Gang of Four published the Limehouse declaration in 1981, Labour was under the Left-wing leadership of Michael Foot, in thrall to the unions and infiltrated by the Militant Tendency, who threatened to deselect moderate MPS.
Two years of soul searching followed Margaret Thatcher’s crushing victory in 1979, but at the January 1981 Labour conference, in which huge control over party leadership selection was handed to the trade unions, the rebels went over the edge. Soon afterwards, Labour would back unilateral nuclear disarmament and support leaving the European Economic Community.
Once again, the Labour Party is controlled by the hard Left. Once again, it’s being dragged toward Euroscepticism. Once again, it’s soft on Russia.
As yesterday, the rebels – Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Bill Rodgers and Shirley Williams – did not announce a new party, but the creation of a “council for social democracy”. It took two more months for the SDP to be created and another three before it formed an official alliance with the Liberals.
While modern traces of the SDP are hard to find, their impact on the Eighties and Nineties was considerable. The Sdp-liberal alliance came just 2 per cent behind Labour in the popular vote in 1983. Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, however, ensured they won just 23 seats while helping Mrs Thatcher to a thumping 397. Labour had just 209 MPS. Despite that mismatch
It was clear from the press conference that each MP had their own priorities
and Neil Kinnock’s fight against Militant, voters did not abandon the Alliance in 1987. It won another 23 per cent of the vote, but only 22 seats.
Only in 1992, after becoming the Liberal Democrats, did their popularity slip and the Conservative majority suffer. The Tory vote dropped by just 0.3 per cent between 1987 and 1992, yet lost 40 seats as Labour surged on the back of former Alliance votes.
Not for nothing did John Mcdonnell warn the splitters on Sunday of another decade of Tory rule. Yet it’s the differences from the SDP that matter, and they could be the Independent Group’s strength – or its weakness.
One key contrast is the stature of those involved. The Gang of Four were former Cabinet ministers and their figurehead, Roy Jenkins, had been Chancellor, deputy leader and president of the European Commission. This time, only Chris Leslie has been even a junior minister. Nor do the County Hall Seven have a unifying political vision. While everything from anti-semitism to Russia to Brexit was mentioned, it was clear from the press conference that each MP had their own priorities.
While Chuka Umunna delivered a speech that sounded suspiciously like the pitch for a new centrist party, Mike Gapes appeared more intent on making clear he was still authentic Labour.
The lack of structure, leading lights and a relatively bland mission statement might make it easier for some former colleagues, and perhaps even the odd leftish Tory MP, to join them. But they’ll need them – the SDP piled on new MPS from Day One.
Yet even a handful of seats could be enough for them to hold the balance of power. And success might not take the form of votes – if the threat of deselection and fear of enabling a “Tory Brexit” push enough MPS into the arms of the Independents, it could end Corbyn’s Labour as a viable party. In all of this, however, it’s only the Conservatives who will come out best.