The PM is running out of wiggle room
How many weeks in the Brexit saga have opened with the expectation of a climactic finale, only to fizzle out as the great moment is sidestepped once more? High noons have come and gone without a shot being fired. Will this week be any different? There had been suggestions that another “meaningful vote” could be staged, but Theresa May has now ruled this out pending further talks with the EU. The PM, who was in Egypt yesterday attending an Eu/arab League summit, has pledged that a final vote will be held by March 12.
Her reluctance to put the deal to another vote is understandable in view of what happened last time, when she was defeated by a record 230-vote margin. A second defeat would be terminal. Her meetings in Egypt and further talks in Brussels this week will indicate one way or another whether the EU is prepared to make substantial concessions on the Irish backstop problem, which are the minimum needed to break the impasse.
The big question is whether MPS and Cabinet members will allow her yet more time. The Commons on Wednesday is due to consider a cross-party move to wrest control of the Brexit programme from the Government, in an effort to forestall the UK’S departure from the EU on March 29 without a deal.
It seems unlikely that the proposers of this amendment, spearheaded by the Conservative MP Sir Oliver Letwin and the former Labour cabinet minister Yvette Cooper, will be prepared to let matters continue to drift. It now looks inconceivable that if a deal were finally agreed on March 12, it would be possible to get the required legislation through the Commons before we leave the EU just 17 days later. Even if there is no deal, the measures needed to facilitate the UK’S departure in such circumstances will not have been passed.
This all points to a delay in Brexit; and while the Prime Minister has been insistent that the date will not be missed, as we report today, preparations are being made in Whitehall for just such an eventuality, partly to head off the threat of mass ministerial resignations. Sooner or later, the credibility of this timetable must run up against the realities of parliamentary arithmetic. What is still unclear is whether that will happen this week or whether Mrs May is trusted enough to be given yet more breathing space. There is not much time left.