Eurosceptics turn against May’s Brexit U-turn

More than 100 Tories abstain or vote against PM’S decision to allow MPS a say on Article 50 and no deal

THERESA MAY suffered a major rebellion from Brexiteers last night over her decision to allow MPS to vote on blocking no deal and extending Article 50.

More than 100 Tory MPS – one third of the party – either abstained from or voted against a Government-backed amendment that rubber-stamped Mrs May’s announcement of the votes earlier this week.

The rebels included Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, Jacob Rees-mogg, leader of the ERG group of Tory Eurosceptics and Priti Patel, Esther Mcvey and Dominic Raab.

The co-ordinated show of force was described by one rebel as a sign of the fury among Eurosceptics that Mrs May had “buckled so easily” under the threat of mass resignations earlier this week from ministers who demanded votes on no deal and delaying Brexit.

Earlier in the day, senior Brexiteers appeared to have softened their stance over the Northern Ireland backstop in a boost to Mrs May’s hopes of reaching an agreement over her Brexit deal.

Mr Rees-mogg said he would accept an “annexe” to the deal which prevented a permanent backstop, having previously said the Withdrawal Agreement itself would have to be reopened.

He said he could “live with” an appendix to the Withdrawal Agreement that set a backstop end date. He said: “If there is a clear date that says the backstop ends, and … if it were to be an appendix to the treaty … then that would remove the backstop in the lifetime of Parliament. That would have a reasonable effect, from my point of view.”

He was backed by Sir Edward Leigh, a Eurosceptic Tory, who said there was no need to “unpick” the current deal.

But last night’s rebellion proved that Mrs May still has a long way to go before she can get a deal through Parliament.

Her promise to give MPS consecutive votes on her deal, no deal and a delay caused alarm among Eurosceptics, who fear Brexit could be delayed for years – or thwarted altogether – if her deal is rejected a second time.

A total of 88 Tory MPS did not vote on the amendment – tabled by Labour’s Yvette Cooper – that confirmed Parliament’s support for Mrs May’s offer of the votes next month, with 20 Tories voting against it. The amendment passed by a majority of 482, as it was backed by Labour and the majority of Conservatives, but the refusal of so many Tories to express support for the Prime Minister is worrying for Downing Street.

Mrs May’s decision to allow MPS to vote on no deal and delaying Brexit had already prompted a Cabinet row on Tuesday as ministers who had threatened to quit if they were not allowed the votes were accused of disloyalty.

One rebel said last night: “The PM gave in to pretty reprehensible tactics by certain government ministers. She was unwilling to take them on and we are not happy with what happened.”

Despite repeated claims from many MPS that there is no support in Parliament for a no deal Brexit, an SNP amendment calling for no deal to be rejected “in all circumstances” was defeated by 36 votes. A Labour amendment on its alternative plan for Brexit was defeated by 83 votes, meaning the party is now expected to start campaigning for a second referendum, in line with a policy shift announced earlier this week. It came as Michel Barnier, the EU’S chief Brexit negotiator, said: “I think we can save this deal and the British will approve it.”

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said she would not stand in the way of an Article 50 extension if it was needed, but Emmanuel Macron, the French president, warned he would demand fresh concessions.

Last night John Mcdonnell, shadow chancellor, said on Peston that Labour would put down an amendment calling for a second referendum as soon as the meaningful vote comes back, which could be as early as next week. Asked if this would be done at the earliest opportunity, he responded: “Of course”.

Downing Street last night denied rumours that Mrs May could bring the next “meaningful vote” on her deal forward to next week, having previously said it would happen by March 12.

Utter, abject incompetence is the new normal in British politics, and that could yet prove the Conservative Party’s saving grace. Not since Lord North was prime minister in the 18th century has Britain been governed so appallingly, and yet the Tories could paradoxically still end up crushing Labour and winning the next election with a massive majority. As Friedrich Nietzsche put it in Beyond Good and Evil, “In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.”

For now, at least, Jeremy Corbyn’s failings as a political strategist are proving to be even more crippling than Theresa May’s. His first misjudgment was to have underestimated the potency of what he wrongly calls “Blairism” – in reality, European-style social-democracy of a kind practised by Gordon Brown.

Corbyn also confused the increasing distrust of capitalism caused by the housing crisis and stagnant wages with an embrace of his own toxic brew of radical socialism, cultural Marxism, tolerance of anti-semites and support for enemies of the West such as Shamima Begum, the jihadi bride. The fact that many voters want to renationalise the railways doesn’t mean they aspire to live in a council home or want the police to be soft on crime. The public is simultaneously more Left-wing and more Right-wing than those used to traditional ideological divides tend to realise.

Just as critically, Corbyn’s cowardly quest to have his cake and eat it on Brexit was always going to be exposed as a sham, alienating both sides. Corbyn has run out of time: he cannot be ousted, but faced for the first time with real competition on the centre-left he will struggle to hold on to much more than a quarter of the electorate, despite the strength of Labour’s brand.

The early polling is crystal-clear: The Independent Group’s (TIG) pro-remain, social-democratic identity will dramatically split the Leftist vote. Yougov puts the TIGS on a hypothetical 18 per cent were they to field candidates nationally, with Corbyn’s Labour on 23 per cent (down from 40 per cent at the election) and the Tories on 36 per cent (down from 42.4 per cent). Such numbers need to be taken with buckets of salt: the TIGS aren’t even a real party yet. But the fact that Labour now half-supports a second referendum doesn’t mean that everything will suddenly go back to normal. The rupture is upon us, as it was when the SDP was formed in 1981.

So far, so astonishingly good for the Tories. But their present leadership specialises in blowing historic opportunities, so this 13-point lead (and the dozens of extra seats it implies) could easily come to nought. The main threat to their ability to divide and conquer – Brexit – is also their greatest opportunity. The Tories must be the party of those who want to leave the EU for real, or they are nothing. If the “Left-wing” vote can split, so can the “Right-wing”. A cancellation, a permanent delay or a Brexit in Name Only will infuriate at least a fifth of voters, who will then peel off to whatever new Vote Leave-style party is created, just as pro-remainers will embrace the TIGS.

The Tory vote would collapse, putting Mr Corbyn back into contention. One can win majorities with 25 to 30 per cent of the vote in a multi-party system under first past the post, so anything would be possible. We would be back to a more embittered, nastier version of where we were before Nick Clegg fatally trashed the Lib Dem brand and when Nigel Farage was riding high.

So far, Mrs May appears to have misunderstood all of this, and could therefore be poised to ruin her party’s extraordinary (and undeserved) lucky break. Delaying Brexit by a couple of months is ominous but manageable; betraying it would be calamitous.

She is desperate to prevent more defections from among her Remainer MPS and Cabinet, but she is placating the wrong side. There are not that many more Tory votes to be lost to the TIGS, and just a handful of seats at worst. The big hit took place in 2017, where Remain strongholds with lots of students and graduates shifted to Labour. Almost all current Tory voters are pro-brexit. She needs to prevent more resignations, of course, but not at the cost of compromising Brexit, which would destroy her party.

Mrs May is wrong in another way. Her domestic agenda lacks any distinguishing features; she seems broadly aligned with the Archbishop of Canterbury’s world view, and its distaste for commerce, capitalism and conservative values. A focus on fighting “injustices” may sound caring but amounts to reheated Milibandism, minus the mansion tax. It will be no different to whatever policies the TIGS come up with and, as such, will do nothing to appeal to the aspiring classes who don’t consider themselves to be “victims”. There will be nothing in the Tory package for those who want to get on in life.

A U-turn is urgently required. The Tories need to focus on creating and spreading wealth, including among the “somewheres” who are ready to vote for a pro-brexit party: the stress should be on housebuilding, an enterprise revolution, empowering consumers, providing a hand up and, yes, lower taxes and cheaper goods and services, harnessing competition, deregulation and free trade.

The Tories should be targeting at least 40 per cent of the electorate, a Brexit coalition of centre-right middle-class voters (there are plenty left, especially in the shires and suburbs), the patriotic working class, and aspiring immigrant communities. They should forget about prosperous uber-remainers in Islington or Wimbledon – with the arrival of the TIGS, the Left-wing, “progressive”, self-righteously metropolitan component of the middle class is now a lost cause – and target instead those groups that should be voting for a Brexit Tory party but aren’t.

More ethnic minorities backed Brexit in 2016 than voted Tory in 2017, according to Runnymede Trust research. Why not court such voters? Ditto in London, where 40.1 per cent of the electorate voted Brexit, but Mrs May’s lot are on just 30 per cent.

With the Left split, this is a historic opportunity for the Tories, but they will lose everything if they betray Brexit and turn their back on their core values. Is anybody listening?