Counting the cost What a no-deal exit could mean for Brussels

Much has been made of the impact a disorderly divorce from the EU could have on the UK.

But Brussels is also keen to avoid a so-called hard Brexit because the harm could cut both ways.

Firstly, the UK agreed to pay a Brexit bill of approximately £39billion. But Theresa May and many senior Government figures have hinted Britain would not pay it all in a no-deal.

Hardline Brexiteers believe the UK should not hand over a penny to Brussels if there is no deal and those calls are only likely to intensify.

A failure to settle the bill would leave the EU with a massive hole in its finances.

There are even broader economic concerns. The International Monetary Fund estimated last year that a hard Brexit would cause EU economic growth to fall by as much as 1.5per cent over the next decade.

The UK is one of the EU’S biggest trading partners and the imposition of new trade tariffs in the event of a no-deal would potentially spell trouble for European companies reliant on the British market.

Those countries with the closest economic ties to the UK – the likes of The Netherlands and Belgium – could be particularly badly hit and the IMF said Ireland’s economy could suffer a 4per cent hit.

Disruption to supply chains, new trade tariffs and the interruption of migration flows could all cause economic harm to the EU.

Meanwhile, a no-deal Brexit could reduce security cooperation.

The EU and UK rely on each other to work together to keep people safe but Ben Wallace, the security minister, has previously warned that co-operation on counterterrorism, cyber security and illegal migration would all be affected.

Mr Wallace said last November that a no-deal Brexit “would have a real impact on our ability to work with our European partners to protect the public”.

The Irish border issue, which has come to dominate Brexit negotiations, could also be a massive headache for the EU. In the short-term, neither the UK or the Irish government would be likely to put up a hard border. Both are adamant they would not be the one to build physical infrastructure.

However, if there were no border checks on the Irish side, the EU would likely have to impose a system of inspection for any goods travelling from Ireland to the rest of the bloc while a longterm solution to managing the border was found.