With time running out fast, what are the options left to Parliament?

Any compromise deal risks same fate as May’s

The field of Brexit options has narrowed. For the time being at least MPS have put to one side both the idea that we might leave the EU without a deal and the option of holding a second referendum. Instead they have chosen to concentrate on deciding what kind of negotiated Brexit should be pursued.

In adopting this path, the Commons has opted to rule out the two most popular Brexit options among the public. Opinium, for example, has regularly asked people what should happen following the defeat of Mrs May’s deal. Each time, leaving without a deal and holding a referendum on deal vs no deal have been the most popular, both securing the support of around a quarter of all voters.

They are also divisive options. Only a handful of Remain voters want to see the UK leave without a deal, while very few Leave supporters warm to the idea of another referendum. The relative popularity of the two options is testament to how Brexit has divided Britain rather than an indication of how these outcomes might bind the country’s wounds.

So having decided to focus on the pursuit of a negotiated deal, MPS are in search of a compromise. One possible option is Mrs May’s compromise of respecting the red lines of Leavers and meeting the economic concerns of Remainers. MPS will now decide its ultimate fate, one way or the other, in the first half of next week.

However, if the deal falls, MPS have been promised an opportunity to test the popularity of a softer Brexit. Proposals for this are varied but have in common the idea that the UK should be in or closely aligned to the EU’S customs union and its single market, leaving the UK in a position analogous to that of Norway. Mrs May’s deal has had little public support. Polls have

May’s deal is as unpopular among Leave voters – whose mandate the Prime Minister is trying to fulfil – as it is among Remain supporters

regularly found opponents of it outnumber supporters by at least two to one. Yougov this week reported that 46 per cent oppose her deal, while only 22 favour it. It is as unpopular among Leave voters – whose mandate the Prime Minister is trying to fulfil – as it is among Remain supporters.

But a softer Brexit? At first glance this would seem to do rather better. Yougov regularly found that a quarter think that being in the customs union and the single market would be good, whereas only half as many say the same of Mrs May’s deal. Moreover, a quarter or so say a Norway solution would be an acceptable compromise.

Nevertheless, that still means only half of all voters are likely to back such an outcome – predominantly Remain, about two-thirds of whom see a soft Brexit as, at least, acceptable. Among Leave voters, however, only one in three feels that way.

A Norway-style proposal risks the same fate as Mrs May’s – the orphan neither side wishes to adopt. Polls have presented voters with the choice of leaving on Norway-type terms, leaving without a deal, or remaining in the EU, Norway has proven the least popular. Finding a popular Brexit compromise is, in truth, very hard to do.

A Norway-type outcome is certainly risky for Mrs May. Most Conservative supporters are Leavers; twice as many think this a bad outcome, with some suggesting that it could drive many into the hands of Nigel Farage.

Yet the same is true if she were to fail to deliver Brexit at all. Much of the increase in the Conservatives’ share of the vote in the 2017 election came from Ukippers who switched to the Tories as the party seemingly best placed to take Britain out of the EU. So if no deal is off the table, Mrs May must persuade her Brexiteers and the DUP to get behind her deal. Any other outcome could cost her and her party dear.

John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University and senior research fellow, Natcen Social Research and “The UK in a Changing Europe” project