Why I changed my mind in favour of the Agreement

Ihave been a critic of the Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement from the start. Had I still been an MP I would have voted against it twice.

The risk of the UK being trapped in the backstop remains, though reduced, but the deal does not provide the Brexit I voted for. I have no great fear of what is misleadingly called a no-deal Brexit. Preparations have been made to ensure the predictions of the doomsters do not come to pass and even if it became clear we were to leave the EU without an overarching agreement, I am in little doubt that last-minute deals would be reached.

However, I have concluded that if I were an MP, I would now vote in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement. In politics, as life, decisions are made on balance of risk. The prospect of no deal has diminished and it looks less likely Parliament would let it happen.

Like others I have, in the past, been encouraged by the fact that we leave on March 29 with or without a deal.

But this week the House voted against a no-deal outcome. It also voted for a delay. These were not binding but there is little doubt the Government would be able to provide for delay. It is also fairly clear the EU would agree only to a short delay to get the necessary legislation on the books.

The alternative is a long delay – and I fear we’d have a Brexit even more distant from the one I voted for – or even no Brexit at all. All this is because of a referendum result the political class neither wanted nor expected. And in the aftermath, too many forgot they delegated our future in or out of the EU to the people. Some sought to reverse it; others looked to damage limitation rather than an opportunity to bring great benefits to our country.

But we are where we are and I believe we must choose an agreement that would take us out of the EU in a matter of weeks. I have changed my mind. I hope others will, too.

Lord Howard was Conservative Party leader from 2003-2005