A strategy that was doomed to failure
Theresa May will no doubt spend this weekend contemplating both the country’s future and her own. She has lost control of Brexit. Exactly when this happened will be hotly debated by historians: the disastrous general election that returned a minority Government? The historic defeat of her Withdrawal Agreement in January? Or perhaps this Thursday, when the EU concluded that she has only a “5 per cent” chance of fulfilling Brexit on their agreed terms. Now Parliament will try to take over with votes on a series of alternative plans.
Mrs May seems stuck with two options: committing to her Agreement, which is almost doomed to defeat, or pivoting towards a customs union, which would tear the Conservative Party apart. Her stubbornness and perseverance might have been strengths in the past – they got her through countless resignations and the loss of her voice – but key aspects of her character now imperil her historical reputation.
Mrs May’s understanding of her job seems to be that she is there to see things through – regardless of opposition. She does not dream, aspire, initiate or even communicate, she simply fulfils the duties that she believes the constitution demands of her. Coming after the flashy politics of Tony Blair and David Cameron, this initially looked attractive, but it lumped the country with an inescapable problem: a Prime Minister who doesn’t believe in Brexit was put in charge of delivering Brexit, and she never changed her mind.
Mrs May cooked up a withdrawal deal that was half-in, half-out and satisfied no one. Any other politician would have realised this and adapted fast to suit the situation: politics is the art of the possible. But Mrs May has stuck to her deeply unpopular position. Parliament has now been kicking around her same, dead duck deal since late last year.
Mrs May has paid some lip service to a no-deal alternative but never convinced Brussels that she meant it – until, ironically, things slipped out of her control. On Thursday night, the logic of Britain’s chaos revealed itself to the Europeans and they grasped that unless they acted, Britain could accidentally crash out without a comprehensive agreement. For a brief moment, the EU 27 was divided over the extension. We saw what might have been had the UK Government negotiated with a bit of courage.
If the UK had seriously pursued a no-deal alternative from day one, it is the EU – not Britain – that would have been pushed into a corner. Its leaders are frightened not just of economic dislocation but of Britain being seen to get away with voting to leave, which could stoke the Eurosceptic rebellion on the Continent. The UK is thus in a far stronger position than its political class gives the impression, which is why it would be madness either to give up on Brexit or to push on with the dreadful Withdrawal Agreement. Unfortunately, this Prime Minister remains determined to do the latter.
Shortly after the botched 2017 election, Mrs May told her backbenchers: “I got us into this mess, I’ll get us out of it.” By any objective analysis, she has not – and she never will if her strategy is to keep doing more of the same. One cannot govern by ticking off options or by missing deadlines and begging for extensions.
Eventually, Britain will have to confront a choice between walking away or staying for good, both of which will have profound consequences for the UK’S economy, politics and society. Remainers who imagine Brexit will just vanish if Parliament wills it are delusional. The correct constitutional position is that the agenda is set by the Government, not opportunistic coalitions of rebel MPS, and so if the executive cannot manage affairs, if the Prime Minister is entirely the captive of events, then Britain is in a very bad state indeed.
Mrs May wouldn’t want to see that. She loves her country very much and her lifetime of service is something for which she should be very proud. She will no doubt meditate upon the multiple meanings of duty, which can include recognising when things can go no further.
Britain will have to confront a choice between walking away or staying for good