May’s pledge leaves much still unresolved
Theresa May has played her final card. After conceding control of the Brexit process to Parliament, she agreed last night to step down once it is delivered and before the next – and hardest – phase of the negotiations. She addressed Tory MPS, at a meeting of the party’s 1922 Committee, with less authority than any prime minister in living memory. The message to recalcitrant backbenchers was, “Back the deal and I will go” – yet another Conservative leader undone by Europe. Arguably, given the circumstances, she had little choice; but this was still a gamble since there is no guarantee that the deal will go through. Without a Tory parliamentary majority, its fate lies with other parties, notably the Democratic Unionists. But even with their support it is impossible to judge whether enough Tory MPS will be encouraged to change their minds.
Boris Johnson and several members of the European Research Group, hitherto implacably opposed to the deal, are now prepared to support it, though in the case of some only if the DUP does, a position that voters will find hard to understand. Why does the agreement they have long opposed as “vassalage” become any more palatable because Mrs May promises to resign or the DUP backs it?
In any case, there is no certainty that the Withdrawal Agreement will be put back to the Commons. Mrs May wants another vote tomorrow, the last day it can be brought back under a timetable with the EU now enshrined in international law. But John Bercow, the Speaker, repeated the warning he first gave last week that the rules of the Commons preclude repeat efforts to put a defeated motion back in the same session unless it has changed “in substance”.
In the Commons on Monday, the Prime Minister said she understood the Speaker’s strictures “and were we to bring forward a further motion to this House, we would of course ensure that it met the requirements he made”.
Moreover, the decision as to whether it has changed enough to meet the test set out in Erskine May is for Mr Bercow and it is not apparent that he is convinced it has been met. Will a change of date for the UK’S departure amount to a change in substance to the deal itself, given that everything else remains exactly the same?
If the deal is not voted on or is again defeated then Parliament will take over the process from an emasculated executive once again. MPS are trying to do what should have been done more than two years ago: find a common position that delivers the result of the 2016 referendum vote to leave the EU. They will have until April 12 to come up with something, otherwise the UK will leave on that date without a deal or, more likely, the Government will seek a long extension to Article 50 and the UK’S membership of the EU.
What would that mean for Mrs May? Will she feel bound by a promise to stand down since Brexit won’t have been delivered? On the other hand, the failure to meet tomorrow’s promised deadline in itself marks such a failure for the Prime Minister that she may decide to go in any case.
There is no one who appreciates this more than Mrs May herself. As she has acknowledged, the fact that the UK is not leaving the EU tomorrow is a matter of great regret for her and no one can question the Herculean effort she has put in to achieving it. Her resilience and stamina have been astonishing and, while we have issues with the deal she reached with the EU, we have never doubted her commitment both to the task and to the country.
She deserves a dignified exit and if the deal is now passed then she is likely to resign the premiership on May 22, the date set by the EU for Brexit under the Withdrawal Agreement.
But there are still many obstacles to be negotiated on the way to that outcome. The vainglorious grandstanding of the Speaker, in marked contrast to the dignified demeanour of the Prime Minister, may yet see further twists in this extraordinary saga.
Even at this stage, on the eve of what should have been Brexit Day, so much is still unresolved.
MPS are trying to do what should have been done more than two years ago: find common ground