‘If the UK wants to go for a no-deal, Brussels is not going to stop them’

As the Brexit debate boils over in Westminster the threat of a long extension to the Article 50 negotiation is often seen in London as something that Brussels might impose on the UK, or that the UK could demand as a last resort if the current deal cannot pass.

But this is to overlook rapidly hardening attitudes on the other side of the Channel against granting the UK a long extension if it is simply going to prolong the Brexit agony.

Yesterday Michel Barnier said the ongoing uncertainty carries political and financial costs for the European Union too, and the litany of failed votes in Parliament leaves Europe wondering if the UK can break its political fever even after a general election.

The question the 27 other EU leaders will therefore have to weigh up next week is whether the costs of a further lengthy delay will in time exceed those of a clean break, painful though those will be. This is not to say

Europe wants to force the British bus off the Brexit cliff. On the contrary, it has taken great pains to ensure that, if this happens, it will be because of British decisions (or, more accurately, lack of them), not European ones.

The door to a long extension has a two-stage combination lock set by EU leaders last month: the UK must first agree to participate in European Parliamentary elections on May 23 and it must also “indicate a way forward”.

The first looks non-negotiable; failure to agree to hold EU parliamentary elections will lead to no deal. And if that happens, it may even come sooner than supposed to avoid legal messes caused by last-minute British U-turns.

The second is a more movable feast, but the impatient camp in the EU, led by President Emmanuel Macron, and including the Spanish and Belgians, are setting the bar pretty high for a new British plan. Mr Macron mentions “new elections, a referendum, a different selection as to future relationship such as a customs union”. What worries the more moderate camp, led by the Germans, Dutch and Danes, is the clear risk that Theresa May, or a caretaker, shows up in Brussels next week with nothing like that level of clarity.

Because while there are clear differences of emphasis between countries, even Britain’s friends are reaching the limits of their patience. As Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister (who once sat in for David Cameron at an EU council), said yesterday, the “ball is now in the UK’S court”, cautioning that no deal was now a possibility that could not be discounted.

The EU set these two conditions for a long extension not as a trap to force no deal, but as a vice to force the British Government into making choices.

The most unpredictable outcome of next week’s summit will be if the UK manages to agree to hold EU elections but still cannot make clear choices other than a vague request for more time, perhaps for a leadership contest, perhaps for a general election.

Will “perhaps” be good enough? There still seems to be a consensus among EU capitals that if the UK agrees to hold elections and puts up a half-decent plan – maybe a timetable of next steps – that should be enough.

After all, the golden rule from an EU perspective is that the UK must make its own decisions. And if the UK wants to stay, even temporarily and on hazy pretexts, it will be hard, say EU officials, to justify slamming the door.

But if the UK cannot agree, then the EU is very clear: it will not take special measures to intervene. As one official put it: “If the UK wants to go for a nodeal, we are not going to stop them.”