Tories could be blown to smithereens

A Brexit defined by Corbyn but delivered by the Government would be a catastrophe for May’s party

Since erasing her Brexit red lines, Theresa May has struggled to avoid the fate of Sir Robert Peel, the 19th-century prime minister who split the Tories and consigned them to opposition for three decades. But the offer she made to Jeremy Corbyn on Tuesday – to decide the terms of Brexit together – risks blowing the Conservatives to smithereens.

Despite the anger Mrs May’s statement caused among Conservative MPS, the talks are unlikely to amount to much. Corbyn will not facilitate a so-called Tory Brexit. He wants to avoid responsibility for any kind of Brexit. He deliberately faces both ways on Britain’s departure from the European Union, while watching the Tories tear themselves apart. As a Eurosceptic who leads a party dominated by Remainers representing a mix of Leave and Remain constituencies, his policy of obfuscation has been a cynical success.

All but a handful of Labour MPS

backed Remain in the referendum. Eighty-eight per cent of Labour members want to overturn the result. But one third of Labour voters chose to leave the EU. Almost two thirds of Labour constituencies voted to leave. Labour constituencies dominate the list of places where most people signed the petition to revoke Article 50, but also the places where fewest did.

Labour’s divisions are compounded by their leader’s beliefs. Jeremy Corbyn was invisible during the referendum campaign, insisted Article 50 should be invoked immediately afterwards, and has spent his career opposing the EU. He claims he voted Remain, but his views undeniably conflict with those of his MPS and supporters. When eight Labour MPS resigned the whip to form the Independent Group, his party forced him to become warmer about a second referendum.

So the most likely outcome of the talks between Corbyn and the PM is not a new cross-party policy, but at best an agreement about how to proceed in Parliament. In practice, this probably means more so-called indicative votes, which might include yet another attempt to win a majority for the deal Mrs May agreed with the EU.

Events can move fast in these febrile times, but it seems far-fetched to imagine the Commons approving the deal at a fourth time of asking. Rebel Tories are in no mood to back down, and Labour MPS have little reason to rescue the PM. She had momentum ahead of last Friday’s vote, and still lost by 58 votes.

The Commons might back a customs union, and require the Government to amend the political declaration appended to the Withdrawal Agreement. This would split the Tories terribly: in last week’s votes, only 37 of them backed a customs union, while 236 voted against. The PM has indicated she will implement what Parliament decides, but a customs union would be a catastrophe: a Brexit defined by Labour but delivered by a Tory government destined to be brought down by its own furious MPS.

And remember, the future relationship is yet to be negotiated: if a customs union is agreed, Norwegian-style alignment with European laws will surely follow.

The PM has ruled out leaving the EU without an agreement, so if neither her deal nor a customs union is approved, the Commons will vote for a long delay. We should be clear about what this means: a second referendum, with Remain on the ballot paper.

This is undoubtedly what many proponents of a delay want. Unwilling to make the case for a second referendum from the start, unable to admit they want to stop Brexit, they have lied their way through the three years since the referendum. Even now, they cannot be honest about their intentions – but make no mistake: a delay means a second referendum, and a second referendum will be an attempt to keep Britain in the

European Union.

Only last month, 188 Conservative MPS, including seven Cabinet ministers, voted against a delay, and that was when a delay might only have been brief. In last week’s votes, only 15 Tories supported a second referendum. A delay and a referendum will split the Conservative Party just as painfully as a customs union.

Leavers might reassure themselves that they can elect one of their own as the next Tory leader. But by then whatever has been agreed will be the law. The parliamentary arithmetic will remain the same.

And a hardline Leaver in No 10 could prompt Remainers to resign the Tory whip. The new prime minister would have to choose: break their Brexit promises, or call an election with a divided party.

Ultimately, Mrs May might avoid comparison with Peel, who split his party with an act of clarity and decisiveness. Sadly, she risks resembling Balfour, who tacked one way and the other before a landslide defeat; Eden, who gambled on Suez and failed; and Heath, who took Britain into Europe reliant on Labour votes in Parliament.

None is a happy comparison, but this is not a happy time. The Conservatives are heading for an almighty smash.

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