Brexiteer MPS in danger from Tory voter exodus
PROMINENT Leavers including former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith face losing their seats at the next general election as Brexiteers prepare to punish the Tories at the ballot box.
Voters are also threatening to boycott the local and European elections over the UK’S delayed departure from the EU.
Analysis by Comres suggests the Tories stand to lose 41 seats, with 29 Leave-supporting MPS set to be ousted as voters switch to Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP following a backlash against Theresa May in Conservative heartlands.
MPS canvassing for the forthcoming elections described enduring the Easter “recess from hell” as irate supporters bad-mouthed Mrs May on the doorstep, threatened to spoil ballot papers and sent their polling cards back to their local councils in protest.
Polling data suggests that if a general election were called tomorrow, Labour would win 290, against 277 for the Conservatives, meaning Jeremy Corbyn would have to rely on the SNP’S 47 seats (up 12 from 2017) to prop up a Labour minority government.
As the Tory grassroots backlash against Mrs May grew this weekend, Labour was projected to gain 28 seats and the Lib Dems three, according to the regression analysis, which calculates the seats where incumbents have less than a 50 per cent chance of keeping their job.
The future for the Conservatives was described as “diabolical” as Tory MPS told The Daily Telegraph frustrated voters had described the Westminster elite as “w------” and had been calling their local election officers to question the point of ever voting again after Brexit was delayed until Oct 31.
The disturbing anecdotes came as Electoral Calculus identified seven voting “tribes” whose support will be key at the next election after analysing the data of 13,600 people who responded to the British Election Study from April 2016 to June 2017.
Using a new technique called Multi- level Regression and Post stratification (MRP), pollsters identified seven groups of voters, from hard-left Marxists to pro-trump nationalists, who will influence the next general election.
They include “Kind Young Capitalists” (KYCS) who see Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson as their spiritual leader, and Nigel Farage fans classed as “Somewheres” representing the Conservative working class who are wavering between the Tories and Ukip.
Martin Baxter, the Electoral Calculus founder, said: “The two big parties have never been in such jeopardy.”
Of the most at-risk constituencies identified by Comres, 48 are Conservative, 32 are Labour, six are Lib Dem and 10 are SNP.
Of the 48 Tory MPS, 29 are Leavers and 18 Remainers. Worse still for Brexiteers, MPS representing 15 of the 21 most vulnerable seats voted Leave.
In the firing line are some of Leave’s most prominent cheerleaders: Mr Duncan Smith, outspoken ERG member Andrea Jenkyns, former Northern Ireland secretary Theresa Villiers, and Eurosceptic Zac Goldsmith – who is given just a 15 per cent chance of retaining his Richmond Park seat.
Andrew Hawkins, the Comres chairman, said: “The dilemma for Brexit supporting Conservative voters is that by abandoning the Tory party they risk enhancing the electoral prospects of Left-wing and Remain candidates.”
The political future of a number of prominent Remainers also hangs in the balance, with analysis suggesting Anna Soubry has only a 39 per cent chance of winning back her Broxtowe constituency after she defected to Change UK. Amber Rudd, the Work and Pensions Secretary, has a 41 per cent chance of retaining Hastings and Rye, where she is clinging on by a 346 majority.
It comes as the Tories face annihilation not only in the May 2 local elections but at the European Parliament elections on May 23, with Mr Farage’s Brexit Party polling to receive the highest vote share on 27 per cent, according to Yougov, compared with 22 per cent for Labour, 15 per cent for the Tories and nine per cent for the Lib Dems.
With the public outraged that MPS on £79,468 a year had been given an 11-day Easter holiday with Brexit still hanging in the balance, the so-called sympathy vote appeared to have evaporated on Tory shires doorsteps.
According to one MP in a Home Counties Tory stronghold: “The voters are not very happy with Theresa. It’s become quite personal towards her. Some of the things being said were really quite horrible.”
Another Tory MP based in the South West said: “There has been some correspondence from people saying they will not vote Tory so long as Mrs May is the leader.”
A third Tory MP, based in the Midlands, said some constituents had returned their polling cards in protest, while others pledged to boycott the ballot box until Brexit was delivered.
The MP added that although he had only canvassed “two per cent” of his constituency, the party’s computer system told him he was the 34th best canvasser out of all Tory MPS. “If I’m 34th and I’ve barely covered any ground, what does that tell you? Most MPS aren’t out canvassing. They’re hiding.”
But another former minister conceded it was probably a good thing that MPS weren’t making themselves too visible: “It’s not an asset for local councillors to have an MP on the doorstep. The main response has been Westminster are a bunch of w------”.
With turnout predicted at a historic low for the both elections, one Conservative MP argued a Tory backlash was to be expected regardless of Brexit. “What’s odd is the annihilation that’s been predicted for the Tories at byelections has never materialised, perhaps because voters had confidence we’d see Brexit through. Now that confidence is waning.”
The South-west MP said that while the outcome of the local elections was looking “gloomy”, it was “absolutely terrible” come the European elections on May 23.
John Strafford, the chairman of the Campaign for Conservative Democracy, said: “I’m getting reports from all over the place saying it’s absolutely dire. I reckon 90 per cent of Tories will vote for the Brexit Party at the Euros … I’ve never ever in my entire life known the Conservative Party to be in such a mess. It’s diabolical.”