The people have lost all trust in politicians

Even the expenses scandal didn’t shock the public as badly as the way MPS are behaving over Brexit

In three decades of studying political public opinion, I can’t recall a time when voters were more despairing about politics – and that includes the fallout from this paper’s exposé of MPS’ expenses back in 2009. That scandal, shocking though it was, merely confirmed what the public thought they knew already, that some – by no means all, but certainly far too many – politicians had their fingers in the till. The Brexit process has shone a light on something far more unsettling: the sheer incompetence of our elected representatives, whose apparent instinct to put party before nation has shocked even the most cynical voter.

Britainthinks has been running the

“Brexit Diaries” project ever since Article 50 was triggered two years ago. Our latest wave of research into public opinion over Brexit revealed a dramatic downturn in mood. Asked to describe the Brexit process, “broken” is the word the public most often chooses while 83 per cent blame the “entire political class” for the mess.

All the major players’ reputations have been trashed: not only the EU and UK parliaments but also teams Tory and Labour. Eighty-four per cent are “not impressed” with either party’s performance, or that of their leaders. Voters feel pity for Theresa May, combined with exasperation at her dogged perseverance. Jeremy Corbyn, once insulated from the Brexit taint, is thought even more likely than Theresa May to put his party, and even his own career, before the national interest.

People have Brexit fatigue. Eightythree per cent now say they are fed up with it dominating the news. There have also been vociferous complaints made in focus groups about the important issues that are being ignored – crime, the NHS, schools, housing – while Westminster relives its Brexit Groundhog Day. Even Leave voters, so optimistic two years ago, with talk of “independence”, “choice” and “freedom” have been plunged into the same gloom. In focus groups held in recent weeks they railed against “chaos”, “mess’ and “lies”. This is not a trivial matter. An astonishing 64 per cent (rising to 70 per cent among women) believe that Brexit is bad for our mental health.

This is clearly not the ideal backdrop to running an election – especially a European election – but that is where we seem to have ended up. As the campaigns get under way and parties scurry to select candidates, the biggest story has been the Brexit Party, catapulting from launch to lead position, polling between 23 and 27 per cent in the first published polls.

While Remain voters are spread thinly across a number of party options, the Brexit Party has managed to attract an impressive 50 per cent of 2016 Leavers. It has also pulled in 42 per cent of disaffected 2017 Tories and eight per cent of Labour Leavers. The appeal is straightforward: a simple “does what it says on the tin” offer. The profile of those drawn to it mirrors the core leave demographic: male, older, more working class, and from anywhere but London.

Nigel Farage himself is at once the new party’s strength and its weakness. Better known than most frontline politicians – a Yougov poll last year had him as the “most famous” with 96 per cent awareness – he knows his audience well and has successfully positioned himself as their champion, articulating grievances that other politicians seem to ignore. His positive ratings at 24 per cent place him favourably, but it is also worth noting that his negative ratings – 56 per cent have a negative view – demonstrate a ceiling to his appeal that may make electoral success harder to predict.

Many pollsters and commentators were wrong-footed in 2016, underestimating the degree to which Leavers, especially those who were not regular voters, would turn out. Assuming next month’s European elections go ahead, turnout will again be crucial. We can already see how polls using different turnout weighting are producing very different results. Predicting elections is a fool’s errand at the best of times, but this one is particularly hard to call.

However, what I can predict is that, whatever the result, the agonising Brexit trauma that has all but destroyed voters’ faith in the political establishment will be with us for some time to come.